WHY INDIA'S YOUNG CIVIL SERVANTS HAVE GONE BERSERK WITH GRAFT?

YOUNG BUREAUCRATS GOING BERSERK?     

    Once upon a time, the hallowed corridors of India’s civil service were dominated by idealistic young minds, who aspired and swore to serve the nation with the best of their dedication, ability and integrity. Even then many fell by wayside, in course of their long service, succumbing to temptations. Yet few remained eternal beacons of integrity and excellence. This breed still survives, and I can vouch for them. I can also proudly say that amongst my contemporaries, they are my best friends. 

But today, a disturbing shadow looms large. Young and not so young civil servants appear big time grafters, manipulating the system for illicit private gains.  Many seem to have joined civil service with the sole objective of making a quick money to lead a lavish and glamorous life and wielding power without accountability. They are oblivious and unmindful of larger implications of their actions and even their role in the larger development of the nation. In most cases, their contributions to society may be in big negative than anything else.

The officers with messianic zeal to serve the people and the nation are fast turning into endangered species. At this pace, they shall soon turn extinct. 

Recent scandals involving fresh-faced IAS officers—barely a few years into their service—signal not isolated moral lapses but a deep rot in the system. From Odisha’s Dhiman Chakma, the 2021-batch officer caught red-handed accepting a Rs 10 lakh bribe in June 2025 with Rs 47 lakh cash seized from his quarters to Pooja Singhal, the 2000-batch “young gun” reinstated in Jharkhand despite MGNREGA embezzlement charges, shatter the myth of youth as an antidote to corruption. Recently one Patel from Gujrat and another young woman Prabha Bhandari from custom service were caught on corruption charges. The real list may be much longer.

ALARMING RISE OF YOUNG "CORRUPTS" IN LIEU OF  YOUNG “TURKS” IN INDIAN CIVIL SERVICE

India’s civil services have more often attracted some of the nation’s brightest young minds. Many young officers were often known for acting with idealist passion and even taking strong position on issues in face of their seniors. More often, they had to be calmed to act with dispassion and convey their position in more non-confrontational ways.  But their idealist passion or energy of youth evoked hope for a better future for society.  

But in recent years, civil service has turned into a bastion of corruption ensnared youth. For example, Dhiman Chakma, once hailed as an inspiring Forest Service officer turned IAS, was caught demanding Rs 20 lakh from a businessman for file clearance in Kalahandi. Social media erupted with his old motivational videos juxtaposed against custody photos. A retired DGP was quoted lamenting how early career promise evaporates into graft.

Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, a 2014-batch officer’s leaked chats exposed rampant mafia payoffs, alleging collectors poison CMs’ ears for transfers while honest ones languish. Gujarat’s Jaibir Singh (2023 arrest for transfer bribes) and Sanjay Popli (12 kg gold seized) underscore a pattern: Young officers, under 40, face disproportionate assets probes amid Rs 10-50 lakh hauls.

These aren’t anomalies. CBI and vigilance raids from 2024-2025 reveal a surge in corruption in India’s civil service. Few notable cases reported in media include Meghraj Singh Ratnu booked for disproportionate assets in Rajasthan to Vinod Kumar dismissed in Odisha’s housing scam. These are few cases that came to my notice from media. The total list, including those unreported in media and undetected by agencies, may be way too longer.

CORRUPTION: A MUCH DEEPER AND WIDER MALAISE

My friends in civil service disclose that the smarter and powerful lot among the corrupt in civil service can never get caught. They know how to game the system. From politicians to judiciary to big corporates, along with virtually all levels in civil service, have evolved corruption into a complex science and a brilliant art. It is "fools" and "desperate" among them who get exposed and caught.

I remember one of the personally incorruptible legendary politicians telling us during NDC lecture a decade back that a certain degree of corruption was inevitable for smooth functioning of systems in India. Problems arise only for those who exceed a known threshold level of graft in every department. But he alerted the absolutely incorruptible, particularly targeting me in the context of my previous diplomatic initiatives on foreign soil against mega arm kick-back accused, that entire system gets together, at least metaphorically, to hack the absolutely honest into pieces. Similar words of wisdom and advice I had received from many esteemed elders who had retired long back. I believe the entire situation has further evolved since then.

However, I had explained to them that I always respected corruption as "undeclared fundamental right of every clever Indian" as routine corruption in India was neither my priority nor did it come in professional jurisdiction. I also knew that no professional or leader in India in any sector can afford the luxury of thinking or acting like a “vigilance officer” or whistle blower. I was warned earlier that one can choose to stay honest as long as it did not seriously interfere with the "undeclared fundamental rights" of more powerful in the system. Else one’s entire life-time shall be consumed in these, without learning any professional-technical skills and contributing something substantial. 

But if one turned too flexible to accommodate such “undeclared fundamental right” of every well-connected clever Indian, one would be reduced into a vegetable without spine and bereft of any self-esteem. A society was certain to be subjugated and subverted if a significant number of its educated leaders in different spheres were robbed of, or surrendered, their self-esteem and self-belief. 

Hence, my only request to my seniors was not to use my shoulders for their such private agenda that were at the cost of public and national good. Similarly, I advised my juniors not to exercise their “unwritten fundamental right" in a manner that eroded my goals of institutional and professional excellence beyond a certain level. I pleaded with them to exercise their "right" in a manner where dents to the professional goals were compensated by energized performance. And the whole thing happened in a way that was outside may gauge, giving me enough head space to look the other way.

 But I was not in the mainstream civil service with public dealing. Barring few tenures, there was never an opportunity or space for any dispute over exercise of such undeclared fundamental right by any of my junior or senior colleagues. Fortunately, nearly all my seniors, except a small cartel that targeted me towards the end over my principled position, almost all my juniors respected the boundaries that I had politely outlined.

But following my retirement and greater interface with society, I am coming across a deeper and real exposure to realities in society. Almost a year or little earlier, a former Director of CBI, who can be counted as one of the few genuinely honest Chiefs that the agency may have had in decades, described the agency premises in a private discussion as one of the biggest “monuments of corruption” to my shock and surprise. Later, he told that society itself had got so polluted that systems cannot escape the stink. He maintained that it had become impossible to distinguish the honest and not so honest in almost every agency and individual officers alone cannot be blamed for the same. 

Regarding the number of cases that reach CBI, or lead to indictment over graft, may be too insignificant compared to the total volume of corruption in Govt or society. Besides, the bigger non-controversial issues are resolved smartly avoiding any tell-tale signs. There is a huge network for laundering the proceeds of graft. Law enforcement capacities shall probably always remain few decades behind advancements in domain of organised crime and big graft, despite all modern technologies of surveillance and investigation.

CORRUPTION IN CIVIL SERVICE: FLAWED STRUCTURES

What is intriguing that some of the young officers caught in graft had done extremely well in Ethic or integrity paper of UPSC for selection. One does not know whether to laugh or express shock at clerical psyche of great minds at UPSC or the nation. Given the wider dynamics of society, where corruption has become not merely an acceptable but the only way to survive and thrive in society, how can such examinations counter the wider effects of society? In reality, most, but not all, recruits are already psychologically conditioned to accept or co-exist with corruption even before they join service. Hence, Ethics paper can be gamed by smart dishonesty. Many have gamed even the highest distinctions and awards by fake performance proofs.  

Corruption and entitlement are inbuilt in the existing civil service structures. There may not be any other country on this planet that allows para-trooping of young recruits at the top of governance institutions in almost every department. They neither possess solid professional knowledge nor work experience to lead these institutions or departments when they take over initially. 

Such an arrangement was required by a colonising power in the 19th Century British India, who had to rule a large country with minimal number of incumbents. They did not trust the entire local population and lower rung local functionaries. It was the need to control a massive governance apparatus of a large country through a small number of loyal incumbents at the top that had necessitated the invention of the current model. This structure was designed to control the entire governance machinery and people through it. Optimising comprehensive output of society and state or empowerment of masses was never priority. Hence, loyalty mattered more than professional and technical competence.  

Initially, all incumbents of Indian civil services, under British India, were white English Male, and the very examination was conducted in London. Subsequently when locals were allowed, only few wealthy among them, who owed their wealth or freedom only to the loyalty towards the colonizer, were allowed to appear in the examination in London.

It is intriguing that why this relic raj has not been sufficiently improvised to address governance need of the largest democracy of the nation. Today, even Britain does not have such structures of civil service for itself. None of the developed countries allow generalist paratroopers at the top of their specialist institutions and that too on basis of information memorisation on issues that have no relevance to the jobs that they handle. 

It is baffling that why an independent India has not created a professional civil service where recruitments are based on a combination of aptitude, commitment and technical knowledge of a certain domain as well as wider empathy towards society. Intriguingly, there is absolutely no mandatory social or community service programme in entire education system that can foster stronger empathy, integrity or commitment to society or the nation among the youth. Unlike Japan or Singapore or Scandinavian countries, there is absolutely no special programme to imbibe ethics and integrity among school children, which is so crucial for a large and diverse country like India. 

How long can we escape our responsibility by blaming the British and the Mughals for our current woes? What prevents us from creating a better system of governance and education? Where we create an ethical citizenry from whom we select ethical functionaries of state. Or we build an entire societal ecosystem where integrity to flourish and thrive. 

Further, it is intriguing that incumbents do not get higher responsibilities on the basis of demonstrated domain expertise and leadership capacities and contributions. Rather than simple seniority and loyalty, or obedience, to the political masters determines. Of course, experience does prepare incumbents for certain higher leadership level roles. But it may not be sufficient for optimal output of individuals and institutions. Hence, more often senior civil servants turn complicit in agenda for power grab and power retention through any means or at any cost rather than public or national good.  

Situation has been further vitiated in Indian bureaucracy by identity-based reservations and promotions. Here any serious discussion on performance or accountability has potential to turn into acrimonious squabble over issues other than professionalism and excellence.

INDIVIDUAL BRILLIANCES AMIDST SYSTEMIC FLAWS  

Even in the current era, UPSC is driven by the assumption that memorisers of information shall make perfect leaders in civil service. There is nothing to evaluate integrity, ethic, aptitude, larger vision or domain knowledge or even leadership attributes in selection or allocation of professional roles. Important responsibilities are dependent more upon loyalty to a regime rather than ability and capacity to professionally contribute. So net result is emergence of an entitlement driven rent collecting class that stays loyal to the master at the top. This gets qualitatively better and bigger opportunities for rent collection. 

Yet it is beauty of family upbringing and societal ethic or individual influence of mentors that shaped many civil servants to stay honest and make significant contributions, despite systemic discouragements to excellence and integrity. One wonders if there is an attempt to re-shape or break these indigenous societal values and ethic also by larger opaque forces. This is especially given all round attack on social values and community cohesion of India through multiple channels and means. 

There is a strong case for restructuring the recruitment process of the UPSC as well as our entire education system. We are already in an era where machines do better memorisation than humans. AI can do better analysis and that too with greater consistency. 

Yet human mind can carry out far more innovation from the prism of enhancing the quality of social cohesion as well as quality of competition to foster higher quality of excellence in every human endeavour. 

Society needs genuine leaders in every sector who can rise beyond narrow and parochial considerations to contribute towards optimisation of comprehensive strengths of a society, state and civilisation. Ultimately, we need a mechanism where individuals and societies can mutually empower each other. This is one of the cardinal principles of Indocracy that I have outlined. 

Simultaneously, an intelligent and unethical, or psychologically deranged incumbent, is far more serious threat to society than a little less intelligent one. But ideally, an idealist, courageous domain expert with higher quality of character and integrity shall always make leader in administration and governance.

CORRUPTION: A SOCIETAL DISORDER THAT HAS TURNED GENETIC?

Corruption is not merely a moral or legal issue. It appears have got fused in the neural circuitry of most successful Indians. From cradle to grave an average Indian navigates varying degrees and forms of corruption that has become indispensable for sheer survival and prosperity of most Indians. Consequently, it has turned into a genetic, societal and systemic scourge that no agency or court can resolve.

I remember a young police officer, who had attended one of my lectures, ran into me at a social gathering at a common friend’s place few years back. Somehow discussions turned in a direction, when I started explaining importance of individual integrity for social trust to a group of doctors. Most of them were amused but were indulgently listening to me. 

At that time, I had very little realistic exposure to reality within our domestic governance systems. I have never worked in a public dealing job in India. In retrospect, I feel they must have found my idealistic naivete a novelty.

But soon this young officer serving in Delhi Police approached me and politely said that he had had a couple of drinks but was not intoxicated. But that had helped him gain confidence to pose few questions to me with candour. He posed these quite sincerely. These included: 

a) whether I knew if there existed any good school in Delhi where an average Indian could get his or her child admitted without making an underhand payment? Or 

b) was there any Govt hospital in Delhi where one could get good treatment with certainty without compromising one’s dignity if one did not go there on any reference from higher ups? Or

c)  if one could get any decent public service or tolerable life anywhere in the country if one did not have sufficient money or power and connections? 

There were many other questions s well. These were genuine and yet profound. He had said life was only one and only for few years. Why should people be expected to die and lead a deprived and wretched existence in name of integrity which was simply not sustainable within our society and systems. 

He finally asked me did I want younger officers to die in poverty and suffer in humiliation over hypocrisy of society? How long could one survive in civil service by disposing off modest inheritances to lead a reasonable comfortable life befitting one's social position? A time would come when nothing shall be left to even dispose off and life shall turn miserable and frustrating.    

He further added that any confrontation with any bigwig over integrity could leads to not merely suspension but even termination from service through blatant criminality and fraud. He also cited examples how he had helped some people on recommendations of elected representatives or even reputed civil society leaders to discover to his horror that those very intermediaries had exacted big financial favours from the beneficiaries in his very name without his knowledge.       

He gave me a primer on institutionalised corruption in all major police and civilian districts of the country as well as much more mega commercial corruption. Many deviations from rules or violation of laws were sources of income where proceeds got smoothly distributed. No one could dare touch these or protest it without a severe personal consequence. I definitely had serious knowledge about big globalised corruption and money laundering but not this aspect. 

He further assured me that in all cases of genuine humanitarian issues involving ordinary people, most decent officers do help the victim unconditionally and follow rules/laws to a high extent possible. This is a reality in all better police districts. In the remaining matters, the diktat of higher ups decides the course of events. On issues that are under severe public watch, most officers are careful to act with integrity and laws. Till date I admire worldly wisdom and forthright approach of this officer who was over a decade younger than me. Till date I have no valid answer to questions that he had posed. And yet I believe that we need to find a genuine, sustainable and humane solution rather than discrediting and punishing people. Ultimate objective is not to punish people but to better quality of governance and introduce fairness in the system.      

But shortly after that I was shocked to learn from daughter of a deceased ex Defence secretary that she had to pay a little bribe to get the death certificate of the old man who was from the hallowed IAS community. Amount was small but the anguish was big. In his life-time, the departed gentleman had the reputation of absolute incorruptibility and fearlessness. This was the brazen face of all pervasive mass corruption in the government.       

Following my own retirement as well as such interactions, I have learned that the entire system gangs up against the genuinely honest and upright. And once they are out of the system, neither courts nor society and not even the people whom they have helped standby the so-called perceived crusaders. In few rare cases, honest incumbents in judiciary, who do exist, may do justice without any consideration. Otherwise, the honest civil servants of India are condemned to meet a wretched and ignominious end.  They suffer in a largely soulless society but in long run the society too suffers. 

Sadly, we are living in an era, where honesty has been converted into almost suicidal path to life. 

But a deeper analysis suggests that most of our governance and bureaucratic systems have been designed to stay sub-optimal in output. Most of its incumbents have been bribed or silenced with threats to keep the system the way it exists. Hence, Govt functionaries are encouraged to extract a certain threshold level of graft. The volume depends upon their enterprise and equations in each context. This in turn silences them forever from resisting bigger wrongdoings against society. It is few over greedy who can't resist the temptation get caught. Yet within them, there is a microscopic minority that is mentally so strong that despite being aware of all realities, choose to stay personally incorruptible.   

But those who are well connected even among the tainted officers, can easily override all setbacks and negative press like Singhals of Jharkhand.  

LARGER ECOSYSTEM   

Transparency International notes India’s CPI score stagnant at 38/100, with 55% blaming bureaucrats. Probably the issue is much deeper.

Until recently, the corrupts in the higher civil service were too far and few. But their numbers have increased. They are now fast turning into a national menace, causing serious obstructions to governance, industry and enterprise. It is wider changes in society and economy that has driven the multiplication in scale and volume of corruption. Containment of this menace to a manageable level to protect our economic growth, social stability and internal security, shall require comprehensive reforms in multiple institutions. There has not been much of a serious thinking in this direction.

One of the senior most retired cops had told me last year in presence of a lawyer friend: “integrity in Indian civil service is a highly expensive luxury that is affordable only for the crusaders willing to lay down their lives.” 

It is important that the entire cost - not the financial alone- of integrity is brought down to make it affordable for all. This is both within and outside civil service. Law and courts are insufficient for this.

I remember many police officers boasting that “right and wrong are irrelevant”. They used to assert that "Indian laws and systems have been designed in a way that anything could be lawfully established against anyone if an IO of police acts smartly." 

I am not sure if unsmart people have taken over now who need to destroyed integrity of both media and courts for this goal of establishing anything against anyone they choose. 

 I have stated in my posts that many of our courts routinely, willfully and knowingly slaughter justice on grounds other than ignorance or incompetence. Even the former Chief Justice of India has conceded the same sentiment in a different language. Yet crusaders do exist even in judiciary and they are the only silver lining in an otherwise decaying system. 

But ordinary citizens in this country appear helpless. Corruption appears fused in our systems, psyche, governance procedures and norms. These make corruption a norm and integrity an exception. 

Yet it is beauty of society that few insane, despite being aware of all the pitfalls of staying honest, prefer to do so almost everywhere but more so in civil service and few even in judiciary. They are mocked, jeered and ridiculed and often contemptuously labelled as “crusaders” or “idealist fools” and yet they persist, persevere and offer hope to society. 

 CORRUPTION:  A THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY 

 Corruption is not merely a moral issue. It eats up life blood of a society. From poor infrastructure to poor health of citizens to bad hospitals to municipal dirt to poor schools to weak and dysfunctional criminal justice system to low social trust to sub-optimal growth in both private and public sector, or virtually everything negative in society can be attributed to corruption. It erodes quality of life of an individual and quality of social trust and physical infrastructure and natural environment. In nutshell it weakens the entire society and the nation.   

Corruption kills excellence and innovation in every human endeavour. This is what explains, we are considered largely a society of traders and brokers and not innovators and genuine leaders. 

Corruption is an invisible war against the nation that is slowly eating up our relative strength in a globalised and increasingly unsafe world. And yet we may not feel so as a society. Because a large percentage of our elite have been corrupted and are compelled to keep quite on this issue. 

This is no fault of ordinary people. It is entirely the fault of innovators, thinkers and big stakeholders of society. If a certain small percentage of people are corrupt in a society, probably they are wrong. But when 90-95% or more percentage of elite are perceived to be corrupt, probably the entire systems are flawed.  

No one is perfect in this world. But we as a society can least afford the scourge of corruption given our security threats and governance constraints. We are located in the most difficult regions of the world with most formidable governance challenges. On less than 4% of land mass, 25% of human race lives in South Asia. We do not have much of natural resources like Africa, Central and West Asia or Latin America or Russia and United State. We lack economic, technological, military and governance prowess of China or developmental levels of Europe. 

Additionally, the cancer of xenophobic Islamic radicalism is being relentlessly peddled through a monster named Pakistan. This has already crippled our optimal rise as a nation. Similarly, smarter geopolitical strategies of China have ensured that we can never compete with them or pose any challenge to their political, military and even economic domination  of the region. 

In a globalised world, corruption is the vehicle vide which external forces create support base within any state to cripple their all round prowess. This can be extended to shape even psyche of large majority of population to normalise inefficiency and under development. Corruption provides the primary support base for organised crime, which in turn retards integrity of governance systems. 

We have seen, how an ecosystem of corruption created a situation in a state where personal security guards of a Head of Govt are suspected of facilitating abduction of the entity that they were guarding. If there is a high tolerance to corruption, the networks of corruption shall flourish and expand to eventually subvert and penetrate even the most scared arms of the state and society. This can cripple and crush capacities of any state to even protect itself.   

The response to corruption cannot be imprisonment and jail for each and every accused. No civilised state with developmental aspirations can afford to be converted into police state or the entire country cannot be converted into a prison where our entire elite are incarcerated. Some mega corrupts though need to be sent to jail only to make an example out of them. This rarely happens or shall never be possible in a substantially corrupt state and society.  Our approach should focus more on guarding our citizenry from falling prey to corruption. Primary responsibility of a civilized state is to protect citizens and not create grounds to coerce them. 

Hence, it is more important that we radically restructure our institutions to optimise and encourage genuine wealth creation through enterprise and industry and minimise parasitism in every sector.  We cannot afford a situation where half of our productive population is converted into the accused in corruption and crime and other half is turned into police. This will destroy our entire productive energies as a nation.

We need to create a right culture of integrity and social trust. This is possible only by creating right role models to begin with. Ultimately, we have to reduce the very space and causatives for both need and greed driven corruption. This calls for very high quality of innovations and leadership in Governance. Unfortunately, there seems no hope on horizon.       

I shall write another post to explain why and how a wider ecosystem of corruption in politics, corporate sector and society impact corruption in civil service and how my concept of Indocracy - a fusion of eternal ancient values of India and contemporary Western scientific practices- offers solutions in this direction.

PS: Kindly ignore typos. 

BANGLADESH: STRATEGIC SETBACK TO PEACE, SECURITY, DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS

Bangladesh appears at the cusp of far-reaching irreversible changes that may negatively impact not only its people but the entire region. Democracy, peace, security, rule of law and accelerated economic progress, that it had experienced in the recent years, appear increasingly improbable in the foreseeable future. Current turmoil and uncertainty have had a spill over impact even on India.

INDIAN FOREIGN MINISTER AT FUENRAL OF KHALEDA ZIA

    Amidst sustained killings of Hindus and vandalization of their homes, temples and businesses, alongside provocative statements by the Caretaker regime of Bangladesh, India displayed a calm, warm and friendly gesture by sending the External Affairs Minister to attend the funeral of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. The Media showed the EAM handing over the letter of condolence from Prime Minister Modi to Tarique Rahman, son of deceased BNP leader. Rahman has recently returned to the country, following 17 years of self-imposed exile to evade a volley of legal cases initiated under the previous caretaker regime during 2007-08 and Sheikh Hasina Govt subsequently. 

    Some critics of the Indian government have mis-interpreted the India's gesture as over-pragmatism, showing India's willingness to deal with whosoever comes to power in Bangladesh through whatsoever means.  Some point to partisan interests like 25-year Power Purchase Agreement between an Indian corporate entity and Bangladesh Power Development Corporation among multiple issues at stake. 

    But in death of any statesperson, including opponents, generosity and graciousness are hallmarks of the highest level of maturity in statecraft. 

CONSISTENT ANTI-INDIA POSITION OF KHALEDA ZIA 

    Khaleda Zia was known for her consistently strident anti-India position. She had opposed almost everything that could have fostered better India-Bangladesh ties. This included renewal of 1972 India-Bangladesh friendship Treaty, India's 1975 Farakka barrage project or India-Bangladesh land connectivity or Indian concerns on illegal immigration as well as sanctuary for North-East Indian insurgents in Bangladesh, amongst several issues. Yet she received warm attention of successive Indian Governments and many of her party associates enjoyed good ties in India.

    During her rule, Bangladesh had been a hotbed of terrorism and a major launchpad for anti-India organised crime besides a safe sanctuary for secessionists and criminals from North-East India and other regions. Though professional incumbents driven cultural nationalism in its security forces did act as a degree of limited antidote but it was of little impact. An intense anti-India approach, though significantly subterranean, shaped BNP's geopolitics and security outlook in the region.

GENSIS OF ANTI-INDIA POSITION OF BNP AND KHALEDA ZIA 

    Anti-India outlook, policies and actions of BNP or Khaleda Zia do not emanate from any personal preference. Khaleda had inherited the political legacy and support base of Islamic nationalists that her slain husband Zia ur Rahman, a former Martial Administrator turned President of Bangladesh, had re-created and nurtured. Rahman is considered a key architect of Aug 15, 1975, coup in which the founder of Bangladesh, Sheikh Mujib, was assassinated and the first democratically elected government of the nation was overthrown. 

    Given the course of events at that juncture, it appears highly improbable that the 1975 coup could have taken place without the backing of Pakistani deep state, and it’s the then patron, who was angered by the military victory of a Soviet leaning India. Within weeks of the coup, Zia ur Rahman had taken over as Deputy Chief Martial Law Administrator to rise to the rank of Chief Martial Law Administrator within a year.  Within the next few months, he had taken as the President of the country in April 1977. 

    The entire dynamics of these developments, involving conspiracies, deceit and double dealings and assassinations, remain shrouded in mystery. But Zia ur Rahman's Presidency itself was terminated by one such conspiracy when he was assassinated in 1981 in an internal feud within the Bangladesh Army. A group of mid-ranking Army officers led by Brigadier and Colonel rank officers had killed Zia in a circuit house in Chittagong in May 1981 at alleged instruction of the then GoC Chittagong. These officers were upset because Zia was sidelining professional officers who had fought Pakistan Army during liberation war to promote those who had fought on the side of Pakistan or who were deployed in Pakistan during the liberation war of the country. They suspected that he was doing so at behest of Pakistan Army. Lot of details in this direction are available on the web. 

    Zia was clearly nervous after grabbing power. His role in assassination of popular father of the nation was suspected. He lacked mass support and strong goodwill within the Bangladesh Army. Hence, he sought to establish a firm grip over the entire Bangladesh Army through a group of personal loyalists. He started positioning them at key positions by disrupting the existing professional hierarchy and the criteria. He undertook a large-scale purge of professional officers. This exposed whatever fig leaf existed to cover up his own nexus with Pakistan.  

    Once Bangladesh had been liberated, a re-unification with Pakistan was never on agenda of either Bengali Islamists or Pakistanis. Crushing defeat in 1971 had destroyed the very will and capacity of Pakistan to even imagine something like this. The strong antipathy against Pakistan among Bengali masses was a reality. Memories of horror perpetrated by Pakistani Army were still fresh. But smarting under that defeat, Pakistani deep state is known to have invested a lot of energy in building an elaborate infrastructure cum network for irregular diffused covert war through subversion, radicalism, organised crime and terrorism. This was not possible without the patronage of a powerful global force. Besides, it had become indispensable for protection of military-mullah complex in Pakistan as well as retention of its relevance in larger geopolitics of the region. Dhaka was one of the earliest grounds where these capacities were tested. 

    On the other hand, Bengali Islamists also knew that as controllers of an independent state, they had much higher authority at home and huge leverage abroad. To strengthen their grip over power through means fair and foul, they dismantled democracy, secularism and rule of law in Bangladesh. They also turned complicit in a larger empire of organised crime targeting India. Mercenary private goals of few probably converged with larger geopolitical and strategic objectives of bigger powers. 

    Hence, BNP has never appeared keen to surrender the freedom and sovereignty of Bangladesh. But it definitely redefined the national identity of Bangladesh and re-shaped its relations with the Pakistan and the wider world to promote and profiteer from Islamism at home and abroad. 

Geopolitical assessments can neither afford the constraints of legal- clerical rigor nor the luxury of flights of fantasy. These need to factor in both the visible and the invisible factors to accurately anticipate emerging probabilities. However, a mere anticipation of a challenge or threat is insufficient to deal with the same. Hence building effective and sustainable capacities to prevent, preempt and deter real and potential challenges and threats become critical. Failure, negligence and even miscalculations fritter away precious energies, making a disaster inevitable. 

The 1975 coup in Bangladesh was a big failure for all those who had envisioned a composite humanism for whole of South Asia. Where people of all faiths could thrive, despite the pain and trauma of the partition and Islamic identity of significant population could not be manipulated by extra regional powers as part of their zero-sum geopolitical strategy to bleed the entire region. 

    The agenda of the dispensation that captured power in Bangladesh in 1975 was crystal clear. Zia ur Rahman and his associates used their grip over state authority to coalesce together the so-called “Islamist nationalists” from Army as well as educated and rich urban Bengali Muslims. Radical forces like Jamaat e Islami was also coopted to complete the troika of a political and ideological support base for "Bengali Islamic nationalism". This was the only way the new dispensation, lacking any electoral legitimacy and mass base, could appear credible. The new political edifice, relying on emotive appeal of both "Islamic" and "Bengali" identities  countered the Bengali cultural nationalism that Awami League under Mujib had been espousing. 

DEEP ROOTS OF ISLAMIC RADICALISM IN EAST BENGAL 

    East Bengal or East Pakistan, or the current areas under Bangladesh, were not alien to Islamic radicalism. Some of the worst pre-partition riots on the subcontinent had taken place in Bengal. In 1941, Hindu population in the current Bangladesh was around 28% which had come down to 22% in 1951 from where it has dwindled to less than 8% by 2022. In the 1911 census, Hindu population in the current territory of Bangladesh was around 40%. Hence, Hindus have been fleeing Muslim majority areas of current Bangladesh for a long time. 

    Awami League led cultural nationalist movement, that eventually succeeded in liberating Bangladesh, attempted to reverse this trend. It sought to project a humanist, inclusive and indigenously South Asian or Indian face of Islam where Muslims, despite being in majority could live in harmony with Hindus within Bangladesh and a Hindu majority neighbor in the region. This was a huge development in the larger context of civilizational war that had been imposed on this subcontinent in the name of Islam by receding colonial powers.

SUPPORT OF EXTRA REGIONAL POWERS TO RADICALISM     

    It is a well-known fact that throughout the last century, the most powerful super-power kept supporting Islamic radicals and even Pakistani terrorist until United States itself faced 9/11 terror attacks. Their reference to Pakistani terrorists in Kashmir as freedom fighters is well documented and so was their design to cover up Pakistani role in 1993 terrorist attacks in Mumbai.  In retrospect it appears too naive in 1970s to assume that either a vanquished Pakistan or its patrons would have accepted the rise of secular cultural nationalism in Muslim majority Bangladesh instead of Islamic radicalism. The latter alone provided the raison d'être for creation of Pakistan, even if it had to be ruled by the military.

    Secular intellectuals of Bangladesh maintain that this is what explains favorable press to BNP in the West even in recent years. Despite exposure of its open collusion with radical and terrorist elements in the region. Many Awami League leaders, including the ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina herself, have accused the opaque elements from the Western world of toppling her Govt in 2024. 

    As President of Bangladesh during 1977-81, Zia ur Rahman had granted amnesty to almost all the accused of 1975 coup, including the assassins of Sheikh Mujib and his family. He had gone on to rehabilitate and accommodate the collaborators and proxies of Pakistan Army in Bangladesh who had killed local Bengalis. These included incumbents of Jamaat e Islami and its offshoots like Al Badr and Al Shams, who were collectively called Razakaars. These forces had specifically targeted Bengali Hindus to fan Islamic sentiments to marginalize the Bengali cultural nationalism.  With the backing of occupying Pak Army, they had killed a very large number of patriotic Bengali Muslims. Impartial sources place this figure at 300,000 to 500,000 but Awami League and its associate maintain that 3 million civilians were killed by Pak Army and "Razakaars" during freedom struggle of that country.    

    Pakistan, despite the backing of the most powerful super-power, had been comprehensively vanquished in the regular conventional war at the hands of India in 1971. But the defeat forced it to explore a shift in strategy. 

    Since then it is believed to have attempted to build much stronger capacities in the realm of asymmetrical covert warfare by coopting both mercenary criminal groups and corrupt elements in politics, media, civil society and even criminal justice systems in the entire region and beyond, alongside terror factories that it created on its soil. Rise of Islamis was expected to fracture cohesion and amiability of Indian society at one end and dent the pace and quality of its economic, military and technological progress. Persistent terror attacks on civilians for over two decades, alongside proxy war in Kashmir and other governance deficiencies, are believed to have consumed a lot of national energy of India. The net result has been relatively lackadaisical economic and technological progress of the world's largest democracy with exceptionally talented human pool. The entire scenario does not appear outcome of natural evolutionary course of events in the region. 

    In newly liberated Bangladesh, emotive appeal of Islamic identity was exploited, alongside linkages with sections of Bangladesh Army officers. This helped recapture state power in Bangladesh, at least to a substantial extent, over-riding the sentiments of the majority and harness territory and systems of that state in larger indirect irregular warfare against India. Not only people of India, but even people of Bangladesh have also been turned into scapegoats for a larger geopolitical agenda to cripple optimal rise of India as a state and civilisation.    

    It is pertinent to note that Pakistani military establishment has never pursued any developmental goal for the people of Pakistan itself or bothered for their wellbeing. It would be naive to expect any such objective from them for people of Bangladesh or Afghanistan or any third country, where they are able to get a share in the state power or access to their territory and resources. Hate for Hindus and goal of subjugating non-Muslims to Muslim identity, by mass slaughters and mass rapes, provided such psychological euphoria to otherwise impoverished and lumpenised masses that they forgot about real governance issues. The resultant atmosphere provided both justification as well as opportunities for private mercenary and criminal agenda of so-called champions of Islam in South Asia. 

    Rampant corruption and fragile institution in different parts of the world offered them access to willing partners in spheres of politics to criminal justice system to media and civil society groups. Consistent preaching of hate towards Hindus on the other hand helped raise an army of energized Muslim youth to run a much larger machinery of organised crime. The entire dynamics in this direction is difficult to gauge but there is extensive credible research on the basis of open information that demonstrate linkages between terrorism and organised crime all over the world. 

    Hence, when a popularly elected government in Dhaka was overthrown in 1975 by a numerically smaller number of well-placed men in uniform, it may not have been outcome of local developments alone. A direct and brazen Military-Mullah takeover, on exact lines of Pakistan was difficult in Dhaka. Because culturally and academically Bengalis have been relatively more evolved people. Simultaneously, global geopolitical stakes were relatively lesser in this region resulting in lower compulsion to curb local aspirations. Hence, more indirect methods are required to control state power in Dhaka to demonstrate legitimacy of the Government. 

But ultimately, the nascent nation of Bangladesh was robbed of a popularly elected government in 1975. Its normal evolutionary course, as a nation, was disrupted and distorted. In larger context, this amounted to reversing the march of this subcontinent towards composite humanism.        

ROLE OF ZIA UR RAHMAN IN LIBERATION OF BANGLADESH

    BNP Supporters claim that it was Zia ur Rahman's announcement of liberation of Bangladesh on March 27, 1971, from a radio station that had inspired Bengalis to fight Pakistan Army. This group has perennially tried to underplay the role of Mukti Bahini and even Indian Army and often credited Bangladesh Army led by officers like Zia ur Rahman in winning the freedom for the country. 

    But many Awami League leaders point out that Zia was only a major rank officer serving in the undivided Pakistan Army.  He had merely announced the message of Mujib Rahman and not his own. He had demonstrated loyalty to the politically elected leader of East Pakistan, despite being in the Pakistan Army. The same message had been announced on the preceding day by Mujib’s political associate M A Hannan. What Zia did was courageous. But he was certainly not the leader of the liberation movement.

    There are many indicators that Zia, as a disciplined soldier, had initially been a loyal officer of Pakistan Army. Just a day or two before his famous announcement, he had offloaded weapons on behalf of Pakistan Army that had been dispatched to kill Bengali civilians. But it were Bengali troops under him who had revolted, pushing a hesitant and reluctant Zia to break ranks with Pakistan Army or face lynching by the troops that he was leading. Hence, he suddenly switched sides on Match 25, 1971 more under pressure or fear rather than a pre-existing commitment to freedom of Bangladesh.  Further, being located in Chittagong, he faced much lesser threat from Pakistan Army who were too thin in the area and lacked familiarity with the local terrain. However, important role played by Zia ur Rahman subsequently in the military war for liberation of Bangladesh cannot be discarded.  Yet it would be grossly unfair to put him at the same pedestal as Sheikh Mujib. 

SHEIKH MUJIB

Sheikh Mujib is unquestionably the biggest icon and architect of Bangladesh who had unmatched charisma. He was leader of Awami League Party that had won 167 out of 313 seats of National Assembly of undivided Pakistan in 1970. Yet Yahya Khan had refused to administer oath of office to Mujib, rejecting the poll verdict. Likes of Bhutto and other Western Pakistani cast racial slurs on him. One Col Maqsood of Pak Army was quoted as stating that it was better that Pakistan got partitioned instead of being led by "fish eating stinking Bengalis". This was the popular mood in West Pakistan where Bengalis were being derided over their language, food, music and identity.

 There is huge literature about the level and extent of internal colonization of Eastern Pakistan by West Pakistan. Revenues earned from Jute exports of East Pakistan funded the lavish style of West Pakistani elite and military officers. Pak Army officers willfully killed, oppressed, insulted and assaulted Bengalis in East Pakistan without provocations. Mujib was initially demanding autonomy for East Pakistan, including linguistic and cultural freedom with his 6-point charter. But approach of Yahya Khan and West Pakistani politicians who mocked Bengalis and threatened flow of a river of Bengali blood on streets East Pakistan, amidst persistent humiliation of Bengali identity, compelled Mujib to call for freedom of his people through peaceful civil disobedience in March 1971. He was promptly placed in prison and charged with treason. It was his charisma and popular support that brought people on streets braving genocide and mass rapes. 

    The details of atrocities by Pakistan Army and its proxies are again well documented by many credible and neutral experts. A mere reading of these shall outrage normal human sensibilities. Millions of Bengalis were massacred and hundreds of thousands of women were raped and maimed by Pakistani troops and their troops.  Such atrocities provided the foundation for unprecedented solidarity between Bengali Muslims and Hindus. 

    Awami League supporters specifically owned and practiced many of the local Hindu like practices, customs and traditions to demonstrate their defiance to West Pakistan. These included Alpanas or Rongolis, Bengali sarees and bindis of women to Bengali music and food among others.  Once Bangladesh earned freedom with the help of Indian military intervention, Mujib focused on building his nation by carrying together all his people. He was repulsed by racialism of West Pakistan that he became determined to carry together his people with a secular identity and agenda of governance. Gratitude towards India, that had helped people of Bangladesh without any expectation and shedding blood of its soldiers, may have further helped him appreciate larger bond of humanism discarding the vulgar face of radicalism that Pakistan had demonstrated. He had laid special emphasis on upliftment of poor, especially farmers and industrial workers of his country, irrespective of their religious affiliations. But sadly, his faith in his ability to overcome prevailing obstructions was proven wrong. And he paid with his life. 

Pro-BNP intellectuals describe Sheikh Mujib's formation of BAKSAL (Bangladesh Krishak Shramik Awami League) by amalgamating left leaning parties and forces and outlawing all other parties, as an attempt to monopolize control over state power. This was particularly viewed with suspicion by affluent Muslim elite in Dhaka as well as sections of Bangladesh Army. Even the protestors who burned his museum early this year derided both him and Sheikh Hasina as fascists. 

    There is an alternative point of view that both Mujib and Hasina should have destroyed the political base of Islamists instead of letting them thrive in political and social space and yet throw them out of electoral process. This built enormous pressure at one level and destroyed the requisite safety valve, causing a major political explosion. In case of Mujib, he paid with his life, in case of his daughter she barely survived and was compelled to flee. This is debatable and probably far too complex an issue to arrive at definitive conclusion in retrospect.

BENGALI ISLAMIC NATIONALISM 

    Simultaneously, credible inputs suggest that Sheikh Mujib's pro poor and somewhat communism like authoritarian approach invited disapproval of the capitalist West. Islamism was a good excuse to snuff out popular voices in society. It offered justification for both violent regime change as well as perpetuation of an unelected dispensation. Under Zia ur Rahman, Bangladesh was declared an Islamic republic in 1977 reversing the secular constitution adopted under Sheikh Mujib .  

    Zia and BNP appear to have perennially represented a component of Bangladesh Army and society who have prided in their unique Bengali "Islamic" identity.  There are alternative points of view suggesting that Zia and BNP have never been radical Muslims. They had taken recourse to political Islamic more as an act of opportunism. They had grabbed power through military force and deceit and it was impossible to retain without invoking Islam or Islamist forces. Given the entire dynamics, they have no other alternative but to associate with Pakistan Army. 

  In this context, urban and elitist BNP's association with Jamaat, despite being paradoxical, is somehow comparable to Pakistan's Military-Mullah complex, where the two share a symbiotic relationship. Since Awami League had strong support base among masses and it was always in a position to mobilize people on the streets since the days of freedom struggle. BNP lacked both experience and capacity in this connection. Hence, it had no option but ally with Jamaat. This was the only way for it to challenge the nation-wide organisational  infrastructure of Awami League. Till date, Jamaat has enormous street prowess and committed following. With nearly 4 to 5 % of total vote base, it is always able to bring down almost all its members on streets to demonstrate strong mass support. Its members can unleash street violence to intimidate almost entire citizenry. BNP with the help of Jamaat demonstrates significant mass support for the optics. 

INFLUENCE OF PAK ARMY ON SECTIONS OF BD ARMY  

    A significant section of military officers of Bangladesh have always shared a close nexus with Pakistani Army and even some of its Western patrons. This is despite consistent humiliation of Bengali officers by their Punjabi counterparts prior to liberation of the country. Following 1975 coup and until 2008, when Sheikh Hasina returned to power, Military exchanges between Pakistan-Bangladesh Armies were regular. These had helped forge closer associations between officers of the two armies. Simultaneously, these had offered opportunities to Pakistan to create pockets of support and networks of influence in the Bangladesh Army. 

    Further, a section of Bangladeshi Generals, following independence, always perceived India as the biggest threat to security and sovereignty of Bangladesh. This was on account of its sheer geographical proximity and size. Since, Bangladesh was in no position resist any Indian pressure on its sovereignty and security, rapprochement with Pakistan and support of China appeared a pragmatic national security strategy for them. Hence, they pursued closer association with both Pakistan and China and possibly others. United States does not appear to have invested much energy to understand issues in Bangladesh and more often its junior functionaries have been swayed by Pakistani agenda. A section of Bangladesh Army officers have always fancied privileges and powers enjoyed by their counterparts in Pakistan. This has only helped Pakistani agenda. 

   On principle, this group of Bangladesh Army officers seemed driven by the assumption that following independence of their country and resultant geographical distances with Pakistan had eliminated the space for conflict with that country. Simultaneously, Islam offered a stronger bond and common identity. Whereas a bigger neighbour like India posed consistent threat. On the other hand, Pakistan and its patrons with their network of associates and partners, offered multiple opportunities for both private and national gains. The same could also help Bangladesh navigate better both in the Western world and oil-rich Islamic nations.

    Ideologically, Islamism, involving aspiration for territorial expansion at the cost of Hindu majority India was not something entirely new that BNP or sections of its military had invented suddenly. Many Bengali Islamists who were fighting for Pakistan prior to partition of India were advocating the same. Recent call by extremist leaders to takeover of North-East India is reiteration of what Islamist Maulana Bhashani had advocated it in 1920s and 1930s. He used to describe the entire undivided state of Assam as lebensraum (natural habitat) for Bengalis Muslim. 

    A practical justification for such idea emanates from the fact that total habitable landmass available in Bangladesh has been far too little for its people. Whereas North East India had been thinly populated. Hence, a steady influx of illegal Bangladesh immigrants under Pakistani rule as well as during BNP-Jamaat rule may have been part of this unwritten strategy to alter the demography of bordering parts of India before its eventual take over. There are multiple indicators that these illegal immigrants have been attempting to virtually overwhelm the entire society in a well-coordinated manner. It also appears that this strategy has expanded to create pressure points or pockets of supports in multiple other parts of the country where such illegal immigrants have captured community lands and local resources.

    Similarly, safe sanctuary and support that was offered to secessionist groups from North-East India under BNP-Jamaat or military rule confirms the larger Islamist agenda of destabilization of North East India. Leaders of many of insurgent groups from Northeast India were believed to have shared a nexus with Pak ISI. Some of these got exposed in media. The most notable was a prominent Northeast insurgent leader who was caught in a South-East Asian capital while travelling from Karachi on a fake passport at a time when he holding peace talks with India. 

    Today, it has been comprehensively established that the dynamics of armed insurgency in North-East India was never entirely indigenous. Without external support from Pakistan and other forces, as well as local corruption and safe sanctuaries in Bangladesh, insurgency could never have erupted and sustained in NE India. This was part of a much more comprehensive infrastructure for an all-out diffused irregular covert war to bleed and cripple India. Indirect control or influence over state machinery of Bangladesh enabled the Pakistani military establishment to use the territory of former for both strategic goals and mercenary agenda.    

    During non-Awami League rule, Bangladesh Army was known for carrying out military exercises targeting India and indirectly referring to India in somewhat derogatory language. Most Indian strategic experts never took it seriously. They maintained that Bangladesh Army had to justify its existence and India being the only major neighbour, it generated a perception of threat to Bangladesh. Hence, Bangladeshi military exercises were geared against India.

 However, Pakistani influence over sections of Bangladeshi Army/Security officers always had the potential to disturb internal security of that country. In one of my media interviews in 2023, I had called upon secular-cultural nationalists to be careful of this aspect. I remember the famous interviewer asking counter questions but virtually dismissing my assessments.  

    Nevertheless, a high percentage of Bangladeshi soldiers still derive pride in legacy of their freedom struggle. Excesses committed by Pak Army to impose their linguistic and racial superiority over Bengalis remains etched in consciousness of Bangladesh. A majority of Bangladesh Generals prefer to be professional soldiers. None in recent decades serve a better example in this direction than the then COAS Gen Moeen U Ahmed in 2007. He avoided all temptations of a direct takeover when the then Caretaker dispensation of Iajuddin backed by outgoing PM Khaleda Zia had collapsed. Despite being an appointee of Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman, he refused to be a party to rig polls. He rather oversaw preparation of fresh electoral rolls, elimination of bogus voters, removal of local ruffians and compromised civilian officers as well as all those, including Tarique Rahman, who could interfere with free and fair polls.

 December 2008 polls were probably the fairest election in the history of Bangladesh. It had seen return of Sheikh Hasina with a thumping majority. But the Army Chief had quietly gone home on retirement after doing his job for the country. On the other hand, Hasina, soon after her return to power, had faced a precarious threat from suspected Islamist elements within the Bangladesh Military. They had engineered a massacre of personnel of Bangladesh Rifles to induce a mutiny against newly elected Govt sometime in early 2009. Scores of soldiers had been killed. There existed a serious threat to Hasina's life and her regime. But she had handled the situation with exceptional courage and grit to emerge stronger.

     But the current caretaker regime's proximity to Pakistani military establishment has been more than obvious. They appear to be expelling professional and cultural nationalist elements from all key positions in the security forces of the country and inducting a large number of even untrained incumbents with hardcore Islamic orientation or Jamaat cadres and install them in key positions. This is likely to destroy the professional character of security forces of Bangladesh. It may be a precursor to forcibly alter the character of Bangladesh state and society to make it more Islamist and anti-Indian.

ATTEMPTS TO CHANGE THE NARRATIVE ABOUT FREEDOM                STRUGGLE

    While BNP-Jamaat and Awami League have represented exactly opposite points of view and thus shared extreme hatred towards each other. These differences are not simply ideological. Sheikh Hasina and Awami League members and leaders believe that BNP and Jamaat have killed their blood relations, who include father and siblings of Hasina. Similarly, Khaleda and or Rahman suspected Awami League role in killing of Zia ur Rahman and now many BNP leaders who were hanged in pursuance of court verdicts. These differences have turned so intense that Hasina described BNP-Jamaat as Razakaars and the current caretaker Govt, for the first time in history of Bangladesh, is seeking to change the very narrative about Sheikh Mujib led freedom struggle of the country. 

    The current caretaker dispensation stretched its disdain towards rule of law, democracy and minority rights to destroy even the legacy of father of the nation. Early this year, they razed to the ground residence turned museum of “Banga Bandhu” Sheikh Mujib at 32, Dhan Mondi in Dhaka in full presence of security forces.  There are already demands to remove secular word from the Constitution of Bangladesh and declare it an Islamic republic once again.

    Caretaker regime appears to be systematically attacking every symbol of freedom struggle of Bangladesh. Its backers have called for even dropping the current national anthem of the country penned by Rabindra Nath Tagore. People chanting “Joy Bangla”, the slogan that had united Bangladeshis in their freedom struggle, have been attacked. A narrative is being built to paint Sheikh Mujib as fascist villain and power grabber whereas Zia ur Rahman, husband of Khaleda Zia, and Islamists as real liberators and saviours of Bangladesh.

SPATE OF RECENT VIOLENCE 

    On December 26, 2025, the spokesperson of India’s Ministry External Affairs quoted a figure of 2900 violent attacks against Hindus and other minorities. Knowledgeable elements within Bangladesh maintain that the actual figure may be in excess of 4000 as there is massive under reporting. The country has witnessed a frenzy of Islamist attacks throughout the nation. These are inadequately reported due to absence of media presence in many inaccessible remote places as well as undeclared media censor. Awami League activists have also been targeted, and many are running for their lives. Muslims seeking to report or resist attacks against Hindus have been specifically intimidated. 

    ‘The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (BHBUC) had reported 2,442 incidents of violence against religious and ethnic minorities between August 4, 2024, and June 30, 2025. These included murders, rapes, vandalism of places of worship, forced evictions besides attacks on minorities. The report cites that within the first fortnight of ouster of Hasina, 2,100 incidents violent incidents had been reported between August 4 and August 20, 2024. These included 1,769 communal attacks.’ Some impartial Hindu NGO activists during private conversation on Jan 01, 2026, have placed the total figure of those killed during caretaker regime to anywhere between 3000 to 12000. Simultaneously, they claim that over few hundreds of thousand Awami League activists and supporters have been detained with figure of daily arrests touching three to four thousands. Even though many inconsequential detainees have also been released, prisons of the country are far too over-crowded. They lament hostility of global and Western NGOs and media that highlights only excesses committed by Hasina Govt.   

    Though state authorities have denied figures of arrests and killing but there is no credible data available in this direction. Ahmadiyyas, Buddhists, Christians, and indigenous peoples in the Chittagong Hill Tracts have also faced violence and discrimination. Homes, temples, and places of business have been routinely destroyed, looted and vandalised. Desecration of Hindu idols have become a norm. A minor sample of hate and intolerance towards free speech was manifest in burning down of independent media house like “Prothom Alo’’ that had been equally critical of Sheikh Hasina under her rule.

     On lines of Pakistan, Blasphemy accusations have been levelled over private disputes and social media has been used to mobilise and trigger mob violence. Recurrent killings of  Hindu men in most brutal and barbaric ways as well as rape and atrocities on women continue to be reported. Caretaker Govt has made too few arrests and always seeks to downplay the scale of the violence while outwardly reiterating its commitment to protect lives. 

FORMER PM HASINA CANNOT ESCAPE THE BLAME

    Ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina cannot escape the blame for the situation in which Bangladesh finds itself today. She blundered on certain cardinal principles of statecraft and security even though her administrative efficiency had pushed Bangladesh to unprecedented levels of economic growth, which was 6.38% annually during 2009-2023. This had significantly bolstered per capita income of people. Simultaneously, Bangladesh had risen in HDI global rankings from 147 in 2008 to 129 in 2024. 

    Some argue that such output was still sub-par compared to potential of that country. But anything comparable had eluded Bangladesh on account of persistent turbulence or direct and indirect Islamist and military rule since 1975 until 2008, with an intervening lackadaisical five- year tenure of Hasina from 1996. Her supporters claim that 1996 tenure of Hasina was inconsequential due to stronger grip of her political opponents on most key institutions of the state. But since 2009, she had attempted to systematically rid many institutions of BNP-Jamaat influence to push the agenda of governance, generate jobs and improve quality of lives for the masses. But still it was insufficient.

    Amongst charges of personal excesses, cronyism, autocratic arrogance and brute manipulation of institutions to secure electoral victories, especially in 2018 and Jan 2024 polls, Hasina and her associates had failed to anticipate consequences of many of their actions. These include prowess of her rivals as well as threats to her regime. They also miscalculated the wider acceptability and sustainability of the instruments that Awami League was using to retain power. She physically eliminated many of her key rivals by engineering capital punishment to them through not so credible judicial process. Imprisonment of political rivals before polls on questionable grounds undermined sanctity of her electoral victories. Probably whatever she did was required for building better governance but the instruments that were used lacked political sophistication and wider acceptability among people.   

    Bangladesh needed high quality statesmanship to dismantle the overall infrastructure of organised crime, radicalism and institutionalized corruption that had always fed her political-ideological opponents. She fell short on that. In between, she had also dabbled with Qoumi Madrassas to apparently wrest at least a component of support base of Jamaat and BNP. But the move backfired.  Many of the products of these very Qoumi Madrassas were at the forefront of student agitation that overthrew her regime. 

    In course of my observations at the platform of a Kolkata based think tank last year, I had emphasized the constraints of existing political system in addressing the emerging governance and security challenges which eventually resulted in crisis in Bangladesh. It included lack of any credible opposition to Hasina within and outside the party. 

    I have always argued that great statespersons must fade out after one or two tenures in all democracies. They must nurture a worthy protege and create a culture of credible leadership. This is critical for not only their personal image or the way they go down in the history but also the credibility and sustainability of their larger goals and vision for their people. Probably this is too idealist to expect in the prevailing global environment where likes of Lincoln or Garibaldi or Gandhi or Sun Yat Sen or Mandela no longer exist. 

    Many external geopolitical factors also added to disadvantage of Sheikh Hasina. But poor statesmanship and her inability to surround herself with right advisors had pushed her into an ivory tower where she got far too detached with the reality to assess impact of her own actions. This engineered a number of miscalculated decisions and questionable activities on her part. Her underhand dealings with few not so reputed businessmen particularly tarnished her image. 

    In the process, she squandered away a wonderful opportunity that fate had offered her to re-script the very destiny of the country for whose liberation her family had shed so much blood along-side sacrifices of thousands of Indian soldiers and millions of Bangladeshis.

    Nevertheless, Sheikh Hasina has been a brave statesperson who attempted something extremely difficult. Personally, she appeared incorruptible. She kept her children out of politics even though her son rendered few services towards the end of her tenure but only on pro bono basis. She tried to protect her support base among freedom fighters by granting some entitlement to their progenies in the form of reservations. This triggered student movement. Probably, instead of choosing an easier option she could have been more innovative and visionary at one level and yet pragmatic to deal with mass psychology on the other. 

     Sheikh Hasina's failure should serve as a lesson for all powerful statesmen all over the world. Luxuries of normal human frailties and psychological weaknesses like political narcissism, vanity or intolerance to well-meaning powerful ideas or favouritism may not have much consequences for entitlement driven politicians in stable polities.  But these are dangerous and simply unaffordable for statespersons saddled with formidable threats and challenges, especially if they aspire to rewrite fate of their people and their nation. Enormity and intensity of threats posed by subversion, radicalism, organised crime and irregular warfare in this region is far too formidable especially in face of equally formidable challenges of governance. There are no readymade solutions to these. But this is an opportunity for genuinely great statespersons aspiring to etch their name in history through their vision, innovation and leadership as well as courage to stand apart from the crowd.     

BNP'S IMMINENT RETURN TO POWER IN 2026  

    As Bangladesh braces towards the forthcoming polls scheduled on February 12^th this year, BNP’s return to power and election of Tarique Rahman as Prime Minister is foregone conclusion. The election appears only a formality aimed at acquiring a facade of legitimacy. Politically the most powerful force and real liberator of Bangladesh, Awami League has been thrown out of electoral arena through a ban. Only some last-minute miracle can derail BNP's return to power. 

    Elections have rarely been free, fair and inclusive in Bangladesh. In this context, call for inclusive elections by Tarique Rahman appears only a posturing. All key institutions of state have already been taken over by the current caretaker regime through loyal cronies. The current dispensation itself appears a proxy of Islamic nationalists led by BNP and Jamaat rather than an independent entity. The current dispensation has repeatedly confirmed that Awami League, which has always enjoyed support base of almost 40% of the total electorate even during the worst of its times, shall not be allowed to contest the forthcoming polls.   

    Rahman own track during his mother’s regime in 2001-06 does not inspire much of a hope for either better governance or restoration of a stable democracy or even good ties with India.  During that period, Rahman had gained an infamy for brazen interference in governance process. He was known for openly insulting senior functionaries of the state and did not spare even the then Army Chief. His collusion with organised criminals, radicals and their external Islamist patrons like Pakistan were well documented. 

    Rahman has been a shrewd strategist who is credited with scripting the downfall of Sheikh Hasina. He is believed to have harnessed the longstanding links of BNP as well as Pakistani military in the West to unleash sustained propaganda over there to discredit Sheikh Hasina Govt. This eventually culminated into the toppling of Sheikh Hasina regime through street violence which is suspected to have been orchestrated by external forces. Simultaneously, he managed to keep alive the support base of BNP and Jamaat in Bangladesh, with backing of external and internal support, defying sustained attacks by Sheikh Hasina dispensation. 

        Given the prevailing internal equations in Bangladesh, BNP and Jamaat are expected to do their best to eradicate Awami League both politically and ideologically. This is the only way they can capture and retain power in Bangladesh. They may even kill more Hindus in Bangladesh fan Islamism and may provoke Hindu majority to India to shore their support base in the country and gain sympathy and support of so-called Muslim nations and extra regional powers. Subsequently, differences may arise even between them but only after the threat from Awami League subsides. 

    The course of events in short to medium term in Bangladesh does not augur well either for its people or the region. It will test the mettle of even the best among geopolitical strategists to alter confrontational outlook of Bangladesh towards India. Given the open association of India with Sheikh Hasina, and BNP's own constituency within and outside Bangladesh, there exists very little space for any major shift in its outlook towards India. 

    Nevertheless, one can hope against hope that age and experience may have mellowed Tarique Rahman. Better sense may inspire him to act with maturity, statesmanship and Bengali liberalism. Failure of Sheikh Hasina is an opportunity for him to go down in the history as architect of a prosperous and stable Bangladesh, provided he focuses on best interest of his country and prioritizes on governance and developments. There will be enormous pressure on him by external forces that would like to keep Bangladesh into perpetual turmoil to further geopolitical agenda. Forces like Jamaat would like to extract their own pound of flesh.   Hence, his task may be too well cut out. 

PRIORITIES FOR INDIA

    The above observations demonstrate that what we have been facing in Bangladesh amounts to sustained irregular and diffused war against democracy, humanism and comprehensive development of this region. A combination of factors are responsible for the same. 

    There had been a great humanist vision behind the liberation of Bangladesh and forces spearheading the same. They have demonstrated that they aspired to better the plight of people of that country and enhance the security quotient of the entire region. However, their strategy and institutional capacity to deal with complex governance and security challenges have appeared quite deficient and even counter productive. 

    There should be clarity on the Indian side that any instability and turmoil in this region impacts not only people in that theatre but security and progress of India as well. The developments in Bangladesh have already disrupted the accelerated economic progress of that country and relative social tranquility that it had experienced under Hasina Govt. But the course and trajectory of current events under caretaker regime have potential to vitiate stability and security environment in the entire region.   

    While India has never claimed anything akin to Monroe doctrine, it has always demonstrated a special stake in stability and security of all its smaller neighbours and respected their territorial integrity. On the other hand, every major power has walloped both land and resources of smaller and weaker neighbours around them. Being located in a difficult region, where 25% of human race survives on just 3.5% of total land mass on this planet, and that too with negligible natural resources, India has only appeared keen to ensure that territory of none of its smaller neighbours is used for anti-India activities to retard or cripple its own aspirations for growth and progress as a distinct civilisation and state. 

 Pakistan has been a thorn in the flesh in this direction. Its very existence, identity and outlook has been shaped by irreconcilable hate towards India. Its very creation and existence appear part of a larger geopolitical agenda of extra regional powers  to keep India bogged down in social, political and military conflict through a variety of conventional, sub-conventional, gray zone and irregular diffused wars and conflicts. India has to devise innovative ways and means to eliminate this all-round threat in the foreseeable future. Muslims have to be on the Indian side in this quest for elimination of xenophobic, radical and medieval barbarism in name of Islam.  

    Successive Indian Governments have been generous to assist smaller neighbours in moments of distress and otherwise. May be the larger objective has been to convert them into outposts of national security of India. Internal stability and tranquility of these states become important for this purpose. Deficiently governed unaccountable regimes have potential to turn them into a launchpad for hostile activities by hostile third powers or non-state mercenary entities. Hence, bad governance, instability and turmoil in the region negatively impacts security of India.  

    I have highlighted significance of secularism in Bangladesh in the context of radicalism and sustained terrorism in name of Islam by Pakistan. Given the larger tectonic shifts in the global geopolitical equilibrium, where United States no longer appears all that favourable towards India and Chinese strategic psyche is such that it is bound to do everything possible to keep India engaged in avoidable conflicts, a hostile Bangladesh can be seriously problematic. It can open up yet another front for irregular war.   

    While we may not see return of status quo ante of pre-2007 era, when 40 odd terrorist groups were operating on Bangladeshi soil alongside unrestrained illegal immigration and a host of other crimes. This is largely because the very nature of irregular warfare and organised crime have also evolved. But the ongoing attempts to re-kindle anti-India sentiments and destroy rule of law and internal security shall definitely complicate security challenges, causing avoidable sufferings for people, even if it enables some to privately profiteer.  

    Liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 had offered a big respite to India from provocative actions from East Pakistan. But this was short lived. Following military coup in 1975 and intensification of covert proxy war by Pakistan, the territory of Bangladesh was once again used to destabilize the whole of North-East India for decades. But relatively longish tenure of Hasina since 2009, despite all its flaws, ensured end of sanctuaries for the secessionists and criminal groups from North East India among others.  But some of the core elements of these radical groups were believed to have crossed over to West Bengal, vitiating the security environment there. These challenges may further exacerbate in near to medium term future. 

    Further, unlike any other older civilization, India has a unique benevolence or softness embedded in its DNA when it comes to dealing with outside world. In this connection Indian EAM has been quoted in media of having conveyed a message to Bangladesh that 'India's growth lifts this region'. He later cited how India helped other neighbors while they were distress on account of Covid or natural calamities or debt trap diplomacy.  What he said was no ritual. 

    Spectacular rise of Bangladesh over one decade was largely on account of its closer linkages with India.  India has granted tens of billions of dollars worth Line of Credit to Bangladesh besides supplying over 1.16 GW cheaper power, favourable water deals as well as Land Boundary Agreement of 2015 when India ceded 111 enclaves in return for 51. The territory that India received was only 40% of what it had conceded. There may not be any example of a more powerful neighbor making such unilateral concessions to a smaller neighbor. Instead of gratitude, the radical forces representing the current dispensation has been threatening to cut off Siliguri corridor to take over whole of North East India.   

    While Indian EAM's message should make some impact on Bangladesh but given the psyche and outlook of BNP-Jamaat, as well as larger dynamics in the region, it may be insufficient.  Goodwill, generosity and good intent in itself have never been adequate to earn respect and cooperation in geopolitics. Fear -tangible and real - always induces greater love. Time always the biggest healer if the outcome leads to wider well-being.  

    While India should never seek reciprocity with smaller states, and must never antagonize the whole of Bangladesh under pressure of Hindutva groups seeking to ape intolerance on lines of hardline Islamists, it must not never succumb to a blackmail or threat either from any external forces. Until recently, the Western powers and Russia have been receptive to Indian concerns on abuse of territory of smaller South Asian states for anti-India activities. But China has built a unique capacity, both in terms of diplomatic skills as well exploitation of its enormous all-round comprehensive strengths, to generate dependence of warring groups in foreign lands to achieve its commercial and strategic goals. 

    Independent write ups have reported it from Myanmar to Sudan to DRC and Nigeria to a host of other states from Africa to Central Asia to even Latin America local groups who cannot see eye to eye with each other are dependent upon the Chinese engagements for their own survival as well as workable understanding with the rest. This is a brilliant capacity in the realm of security and covert warfare that no major power is known to have ever developed or possessed. 

India has to be more innovative. Instability in Bangladesh can turn into a multi-edged weapon against both masses in Bangladesh as well as India. Its concerns in Bangladesh cannot be restricted to security of minorities. While minorities are important and their security is hallmark of internal stability of that country and, given the unique dynamics of the region, it also implies absence of animosity towards India. But Indian approach has to be much more broader and strategic covering security of all citizens as well as accommodation of strategic and long-term security concerns. 

    India must radicalism for sake of its own security. But at the same time,  it must thwart attempts to box it into a Hindu only nation. Some hostile geopolitical forces have perennially sought to bring India at the same pedestal as Pakistan by describing India as Hindu nation and Pakistan as Muslim nation to deride superior moral identity and outlook of the world's largest and the most diverse democracy. 

       Indian state has to be cognizant of strategic and tactical goals of extra regional powers in the region. Any hostile presence or activity at Cooks island and Chittagong port or Cox's Bazar can adversely impact military-strategic security of India. There are indicators that extra regionals powers are seeking a foothold at these locations. 

Negative public sentiments against India in Bangladesh or unrestrained illegal immigration from there have been impacting our internal security in a variety of ways. For example, Bangladesh was far more populous than Pakistan in 1947 and it remained so until 1971. Today Pakistan has 50% more population (255 million plus) than Bangladesh (177 million). Intriguingly, the population growth rate of Bangladesh has remained low since 1990s and yet 2/3rd of people have remained young since the turn of the century. This is simply not possible. 

    It is clear that large scale illegal immigration has been taking place from Bangladesh since too long. In early 2000s, media guestimates had placed the number of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in India at more than 50 million. This figure at current is guesstimated to be anywhere between 120 to 150 millions. Accelerated economic development in Bangladesh under Hasina Govt had significantly curbed the level of illegal immigration. But revival of Lebensraum strategy, amidst economic downturn in Bangladesh, shall reverse that trend.  

    Hence, Indian stakes in Bangladesh are much more comprehensive and strategic.  These require deployment of a variety of complex, subtle and yet effective instruments alongside much stronger all round institutional capacities. I shall not like to spell out further details in this direction.  Instead of just tactically responding to crises like what we are facing in Bangladesh, our governance and security strategy requires much greater fusion and innovation to optimize the quality of economic growth, technological innovation, social-national cohesion as part of comprehensive national power.  In the prevailing global geopolitical-security environment, it appears an existential necessity for security, stability and evolution of India as a state and distinct civilization.                                              *********************************