India-US Tariff Truce: Need to Transform Short-Term Tactical Gains In to Long-Term Strategic Strengths

                        Despite my academic degree in Economic diplomacy, as a practitioner, I specialized in diplomacy,                                                security. Yet my interest in grand strategy in national security, pushes me to examine this issue at this juncture.                             I have been assisted by a young associate in getting some data and preparation of the table as well as some                               draft notes. He has chosen not to be acknowledged. However, the perspective and conclusions are entirely                                   mine. I regret if any data or table from the web has crept into this piece that deserves to acknowledged. 

                                                                            SECTION: A

A Broad Outline

    Indian Sensex has experienced strong gains following President Trump's announcement of substantial roll back of US tariffs on Indian imports. The joy and jubilation has been particular evident in the labour intensive sectors like textiles/apparels, gems and jewelry and marine exports etc that account for nearly half the value of approximately 90-billion dollar Indian exports to US. 

    Modi-Trump deal is unquestionably a major short-term relief for Indian economy. Indian equities saw a strong positive reaction right after the announcement, with indices rallying and the rupee strengthening on expectations of improved trade and investor confidence.  The gains may not be restricted to export earnings alone. It rather signals a renewed strategic engagement that carries a potential for deeper partnership with US, notwithstanding the unpredictability of President Trump and his tactical approach. Amid broader geopolitical uncertainties, this appears a silverlining. Nevertheless, concerns about supply chain resilience, energy security, and India's relationships with Russia and China shall continue to persist. 

    Many specifics and final text of the agreement— including exact timelines for tariff eliminations on both sides, sector-by-sector commitments, and legal enforcement mechanisms — are yet available publicly. But whatever little that has come out demonstrates need for leveraging short term gains to create long-term strategic advantages. 

As part of the deal, India has apparently pledged to raise US exports to India nearly 500 billion US dollars by bringing down tariff and non-tariff barriers to zero level for a wide variety of imports. However, the time frame to achieve this goal is still uncertain. And so is the total list of sectors  that shall be allowed such zero-tariff market access.   

The Deal: 

The United States has: 

• reduced reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods — from 25 % to 18 % with immediate effect. 
• has withdrawn additional punitive tariffs (up to another ~25 %) linked with India’s purchase of Russian oil.

In return, India has offered to:   

• reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods to zero tariffs for many categories; 
• raise imports from the United States across a wide spectrum - including energy (oil & gas), technology, agriculture, defense equipment, aircraft, and others— to a volume of $500 billion over the next few years; and 
• halt reduce purchases of Russian oil.

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A SECTOR WISE ASSESSMENT OF IMPACT OF THE DEAL:

 Textiles & Apparel

Impact: Strong positive

• Textiles and apparel are among India’s most export-exposed sectors to the U.S., with roughly a quarter or more of shipments going there. 
• The tariff reduction improves price competitiveness compared with rivals like Bangladesh and Vietnam, potentially unlocking new orders. 

Winners:

• Garment manufacturers
• Home textile producers
• Yarn and fibre exporters

Risks:

• Benefits depend on global demand; margins could still be squeezed by input costs.
• Lead times for new orders and supply chain adjustments may delay impact.

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Gems & Jewellery:

Impact: Positive

• This is another labour-intensive export category hit hard by past high tariffs; the cut to 18% helps reduce landed cost for U.S. importers. 
• India accounts for a meaningful share of U.S. polished diamond and jewellery imports, so demand may stabilize or recover. 

Winners:

• Diamond polishing and gold jewellery exporters

Risks:

• Global luxury demand is cyclical, so recovery may be uneven.

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Engineering Goods & Auto Components

Impact: Moderate to Positive

• Engineering goods (including industrial machinery, electrical equipment, and auto parts) benefit from lower tariffs, improving pricing against competitors. 
• Auto components tied into global supply chains could see renewed contracts. 

Winners:

• Exporters integrated with international OEMs
• Precision engineering and capital goods suppliers

Risks:

• Passenger vehicle exports may benefit less if mass-market tariffs or regulatory barriers remain; the most significant gains are for components and specialized machinery rather than complete cars. 

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Agriculture & Food Exports

Impact: Mixed and Still Unclear

• U.S. analysts expect expanded American farm exports to India, which could help narrow U.S. agricultural trade deficits. 
• India’s concessions — particularly in dairy or genetically modified crops — remain politically sensitive and not fully detailed. 

Potential Winners:

• Marine products like shrimp
• Rice exporters (possible tariff relief)

Risks:

• Domestic farmers worry about competition from highly subsidised U.S. farm products who enjoy huge advantage on account of their much larger scale and volume of production.
• Final agricultural terms are not yet fully public; potential exposure may grow once detailed.

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Chemicals & Specialty Inputs

Impact: Positive Long-Term

• Specialty chemicals and intermediates can gain pricing advantage and deeper access to U.S. supply chains. 
• Many foreign companies are diversifying supply chains away from China — a “China-plus-one” trend that could benefit India’s chemical exporters.

Winners:

• Specialty chemical makers
• Suppliers in diversified global value chains

Risks:

• These are contractual, long-term markets — gains are gradual rather than instantaneous.

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Seafood & Marine Products

Impact: Positive

• Reduced duty pressure is expected to help restore U.S. market demand following tariff-related slowdowns. 

Winners:

• Shrimp exporters (U.S. accounts for a large share of volumes)
• Frozen seafood sectors

Risks:

• Logistical costs and quality compliance matter more than tariffs in this segment.

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IT Services & Pharmaceuticals

Impact: Indirect / Neutral to Positive
These sectors are largely services-based and not directly affected by goods tariffs, but improved bilateral trade relations and sentiment could help:

Potential Gains:

• Better business environment for service exports into the U.S.
• Stronger investment and bilateral tech cooperation

Risks:

• Sector impacts derive more from macro sentiment and diplomatic ties than direct tariff changes.

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Financial Markets & Investment Flows

Market Reaction:

• Indian markets rallied sharply on the deal, with indices jumping and the rupee strengthening — reflecting improved investor confidence. 

Sector Gains:

• Export-linked equities
• Banks and financials (via balance sheet improvement and credit demand)

Risks:

• Sentiment-driven rallies can fade if implementation lags.

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Key Risks & Practical Challenges

Implementation Details Uncertain: Many tariff schedules, timelines, and regulatory terms are still being finalized. 
Agriculture Sensitivity: Farm sector access remains an unresolved flashpoint. 
Energy Shift Costs: If India reduces Russian oil imports significantly — as claimed — refining economics and fuel costs could be affected. 
Global Competitive Dynamics: Lower U.S. tariffs improve competitiveness but don’t guarantee immediate volume growth — order books and supply chain readiness matter. 

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A Chart Depicting Sector Winners & Risks

Sector	Expected Impact	Notes
Textiles & Apparel	Significant	Lower duties improve price competitiveness
Gems & Jewellery	Strong	Higher U.S. demand prospects
Engineering & Auto Components	Moderate	Best for components vs full vehicles
Chemicals & Speciality Inputs	Long-term gain	Global supply chain shift helps
Seafood & Marine	Positive	Tariff relief boosts demand
Agriculture	Mixed	Sensitive domestic politics, details pending
IT / Pharma	Neutral to positive	Indirect benefits from sentiment
Financial Markets	Positive	Rally on improved outlook

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Overall Assessment: 

The sectoral impact of the trade deal is largely positive but the fine print matters — especially on agricultural access, services rules, energy sourcing obligations, and tariff phase-ins — which will shape the real-world effects over the coming 12–24 months. 

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A Comparative Position Vis-a-Vis China, Vietnam and Bangladesh: 

Significance of reduction in tariffs lays in its ability to bolster relative competitiveness of Indian goods in the U.S. market compared to major rivals. I have taken the following three case studies  

• China (systemic rival, high tariffs, tech controls),
• Vietnam (preferred China-plus-one hub),
• Bangladesh (low-cost apparel powerhouse).

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Comparative Matrix: India vs China vs Vietnam vs Bangladesh (Post-Deal)

Dimension	India	China	Vietnam	Bangladesh
U.S. Tariff Regime (Goods)	Reduced to ~18% average; punitive layers removed	High and sticky; Section 301 tariffs largely intact	Lower, stable MFN-type access	Low tariffs for apparel
Political Risk in U.S. Perception	Low–moderate (strategic partner)	High (systemic rival)	Low	Low
Supply-Chain Trust (U.S. firms)	Improving	Declining	High	Moderate
Labour-Intensive Manufacturing	Strong but uneven	Very strong (but politically risky)	Strong and organised	Very strong (narrow base)
Scale & Market Depth	Very large	Massive	Medium	Narrow
Value-Added Capability	Medium–high	High	Medium	Low
Energy & Strategic Alignment with U.S.	Increasing	Adversarial	Neutral-positive	Neutral
Non-Tariff Barriers (India’s own)	Still significant	Moderate	Low	Low

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Sector-by-Sector Competitive Re-Ranking

Textiles & Apparel

Before deal

• Bangladesh + Vietnam beat India on landed cost.
• India lost orders despite scale.

After deal

• India closes much of the tariff gap.
• India becomes competitive in:
• Home textiles,
• Mid-value garments,
• Large-volume diversified orders.

Still weaker than Bangladesh in:

• Ultra-low-cost basic apparel.

Bottom line: India moves from “expensive alternative” to “reliable scale player”.

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Gems & Jewellery

• China already marginal here.
• Vietnam and Bangladesh are not real competitors.

Post-deal effect

• India consolidates dominance in:
• Polished diamonds,
• Gold jewellery for U.S. retail chains.

Bottom line:  India gain as tariffs were the main friction.

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Engineering Goods & Auto Components

China

• Technologically strong but politically constrained.
• Facing sourcing diversification pressure.

Vietnam

• Good assembly base, limited depth.

India (post-deal)

• Becomes more attractive for:
• Tier-2 and Tier-3 auto components,
• Industrial machinery,
• Electrical equipment.

Bottom line: India gains marginally and can emerge a credible option.

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Chemicals & Specialty Inputs

• U.S. seeking to reduce their dependence on China may find India a credible alternative.

Following can act to advantages of India to a limited extent: 

• Tariff relief,
• Regulatory comfort,
• IP protection credibility.

Risk: Given China's strategic psyche, any major advantage for India in any sector may invite indirect wrath and retaliation as well, nullifying gains.

Vietnam/Bangladesh

• Limited chemical ecosystem.

Bottom line:
India emerges as the preferred non-China supplier in specialty chemicals. But the scale and volume of gains may remain limited.  

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Agriculture & Food Products

In this sector India stands to lose far more by giving zero tariff market access to highly subsidized large scale agricultural producers of the USA.

• Bangladesh, Vietnam: limited agri competition.
• U.S. pressure is inward — opening India’s market.

Bottom line: India gains little but seriously risks its food security and the matter has already ignited a ruckus discourse.

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Strategic Interpretation: What the Deal Actually Does?

India is Being Coopted in the U.S. Trade Strategy As A Trusted Associate or Desirable Adjunct?

This is something that China neither enjoys, and probably nor desires; Vietnam cannot fully offer the size and scale of market.

However, the net gains for India may be negative in the long-run if it does not reset not only the fine prints of the deal but also its own internal structural and institutional gaps.

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Why Vietnam Still Matters (and Why India Isn’t Replacing It)

Vietnam remains superior for:

• Fast execution,
• Plug-and-play manufacturing,
• Lower bureaucratic friction.

But Vietnam lacks:

• Market size,
• Domestic demand,
• Strategic heft.

India may at best emerge as the additional pillar of US Trade and Economic Strategy in Asia if it plays ball but it appears unlikely to replace Vietnam in near future.

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Bangladesh likely to Be Boxed In But Not Replaced

Bangladesh will retain:

• Dominant market access to basic garment sector;

Whereas India may gain easier access to:

• Diversified, higher-value, compliance-heavy segments.

Net Result: clear segmentation and no replacement or displacement of Bangladesh by India.

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What Must India Fix to Optimize gains from the Deal

Even after tariff relief, India loses orders due to:

1. Non-tariff frictions
• Customs delays,
• Compliance unpredictability.
2. Logistics costs
• Still higher than Vietnam.
3. Policy credibility
• Exporters fear sudden rule changes.

Without these, tariff reduction shall under-deliver.

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Strategic Conclusion:

Compared to China:

India may appear more trustworthy for the US but China remains way too efficient in advanced manufacturing.  Given the strategic psyche of China and governance gaps and institutional fragility in India, China may do everything possible to sabotage close US-India partnership in any sphere that threatens its interests and agenda in the region. 

Compared to Vietnam:

India has advantage in terms of scale and geopolitical heft but Vietnam remains operationally smoother and yet may invite lesser Chinese wrath or covert sabotage as it does not pose any threat to Chinese dominance of the region;

Compared to Bangladesh:

India is more diversified and resilient but Bangladesh is competitive for cheaper end of goods;

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Bottom Line: Trump–Modi deal does not make India the cheapest supplier or the biggest beneficiary but its certainly makes India a relatively more competitive alternative.

Hence the deal appears a tactical respite or reprieve and not even a tactical win; It needs to be leveraged as an opportunity for strategic upgrade in all spheres. 

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                                                    SECTION: D

Trump–Modi Deal: What Does It Convey America’s Asia Strategy

Under President Trump’s second administration, tariffs have functioned less as instruments of free trade and more as tools of leverage. China has been subjected to persistent punitive duties not because of trade deficits alone, but because it is viewed as a systemic rival. India’s experience has been different. While tariffs were raised sharply in 2025, they were also negotiable—and reversible. One can say that  China’s tariffs are structural and India’s have been conditional. While it may mark a fundamental difference in Washington’s strategic calculus but India's capacity to absorb these tariffs have been far too lower than the China.

Gains for India: Relative and Not Absolute 

The significance of the deal lies in how it alters relative competitiveness. Indian exporters are not suddenly the cheapest in the U.S. market. Bangladesh still dominates ultra-low-cost garments; Vietnam remains faster and smoother operationally. But India is now competitive where it matters most to U.S. firms: scale, diversification, compliance, and political reliability.

In sectors such as textiles, engineering goods, specialty chemicals, and gems and jewellery, tariff relief restores India’s ability to compete on price without demanding it compete on political risk. This is precisely the niche U.S. firms seek as they reduce exposure to China without over-concentrating in Vietnam.

Energy, Russia, and Strategic Signalling

Perhaps the most geopolitically revealing element of the deal is energy. While the Indian government has been careful in its public language, U.S. officials have framed the agreement as linked to India reducing purchases of Russian oil. Whether or not this is implemented fully, the signalling is clear: trade access is being aligned with geopolitical behaviour.

India has not accepted formal conditionality, but it has accepted strategic expectations. This is a new phase in U.S.–India economic relations—less transactional than with allies, but no longer purely autonomous. 

Further, sheer geopolitics of India's neighbourhood, and strategic psyche of China, and potential threats arising out of the same, warrant a much closer strategic partnership between India and Russia, irrespective of all other issues. I shall deal with this issue separately.       

The Limits of the Deal

The agreement does not resolve structural constraints within India: logistics costs, regulatory unpredictability, and non-tariff barriers continue to erode competitiveness. Nor does it settle sensitive issues such as agriculture or digital trade. Like many Trump-era deals, it is broad in ambition but thin in legal text.

Yet this incompleteness is itself revealing. The deal is less a treaty than a framework of trust, whose real value lies in what it enables next.

Conclusion:

The Trump–Modi trade deal marks India’s quiet graduation into a category Washington has struggled to define: a non-ally strategic partner embedded in U.S. supply-chain thinking. It does not end trade friction, nor does it lock in permanent preferences. But it signals that India is no longer competing merely on cost. It is competing on credibility—and that, in the current global order, is the scarcest commodity of all.

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Strategic Recommendation: Treat the deal as a window, not a destination. The next 18–24 months are critical to lock India into U.S. supply chains irreversibly—before tariffs again become instruments of pressure.

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PERFECTION: A MIRAGE OR TRAP?

Over the last few years, I have been writing long pieces on my blog or social media. I have been at great pain to explain issues in detail to my readers. 

In the process, I have been writing too little in public domain. I have been sharing far too less of my perspective on wise range of issues that always capitvate me.

I believe that social media is outcome of a true tech-revolution of our times. It gives enormous opportunity to everyone to share his or her perspective on issues. 

But absence of fair and smart filters make these platforms overcrowded. It becomes nearly impossible for publicly lesser known but intellectually serious entities to stand out. In any case, mass appeal is always high for something light hearted and comic rather than something too serious propounded by people with not so high a public profile. 

People like me are particularly at great disadvantage. Real professional contributions, knowledge or even intellect in domain of statecraft, diplomacy and geopolitics, especially for most practitioners can never be established. Their constraints multiply further, because they cannot write or own their contributions on most of real issues. Even for writing on secondsry issues, they are constrained by multiple compulsions and often obstructed by cyber attacks or coercive instruments. In any case, details of substantive issues cannot and must never be discussed for public domain in this sphere. 

Ironically, for people in this category, public perceptions are shaped more by hearsay than by real substance or quality of efforts which remain unknown. Even if something positive comes out in impartial perceptions, we are living in an era of agenda peddling rather than free and fair intellectual discourse.

Hence, life becomes terribly painful and uncomfortable for those who find themselvs on the wrong side of establishment over their integrity and quest for excellence and innovation. Challenges are more formidable for individuals and entities in the post-colonial world. Here internal systems are far too fragile and can be easily mobilised even against selfless innovation in larger collective interest of society and the nation itself.

Fragility of systems in a post-colonial state like India emanates both on account of internal distortions as well as long history and culture of dysfunctionality and state oppression. This was rampant under colonial rule. But perceived influence or interference by invisible global networks cannot be discounted entirely. These forces would like governance and rule of law to stay permanently sub-optimal in this part of the world. This alone can perpetuate global domination of existing hegemons. But the worst facet has been absence of intellectual integrity and moral courage on part of public scholars and intellectuals in this part of the world to rise above their personal agenda and prejudices. 

In this background, social media, despite all its constraints, offers a great alternative avenue to offer contrarian views. This is especially in the larger interests of society, state and humanity. This is particularly attractive for  unaffiliated public scholars like me, who are shunned and avoided by all major institutions, due to their unreasonable and unsustainable levels of all round commitment to integrity that systems can’t tolerate.  My computers have been repeatedly hacked to wipe out years of hardwork and I still remain an unknown commodity in public domain. 

But I believe that amongst many other constraints and preoccupations, that has impeded my abilities to share my views in public domain, has been my commitmet to expain issues in its totality. I realise this is an avoidable additional trap that I have imposed on myself. 

I had written in a manual on leadership, for professionals, that “Perfection is an endless mirage”. It is the biggest obstructor of excellence and timely impact.

I realise that quest for perfection is a drain on energies everywhere. 

Hence, I shall advise all my uoung friends in every sphere that in every initiative a level of excellence that is optimal in a given context and time is far more desirable than investing efforts in chasing the mirage perfection. This is not something new. Yet all smart doers, leaders, thinkers and innovators should be conscious of this and must make a habit out of it.

WHY INDIA'S YOUNG CIVIL SERVANTS HAVE GONE BERSERK WITH GRAFT?

YOUNG BUREAUCRATS GOING BERSERK?     

    Once upon a time, the hallowed corridors of India’s civil service were dominated by idealistic young minds, who aspired and swore to serve the nation with the best of their dedication, ability and integrity. Even then many fell by wayside, in course of their long service, succumbing to temptations. Yet few remained eternal beacons of integrity and excellence. This breed still survives, and I can vouch for them. I can also proudly say that amongst my contemporaries, they are my best friends. 

But today, a disturbing shadow looms large. Young and not so young civil servants appear big time grafters, manipulating the system for illicit private gains.  Many seem to have joined civil service with the sole objective of making a quick money to lead a lavish and glamorous life and wielding power without accountability. They are oblivious and unmindful of larger implications of their actions and even their role in the larger development of the nation. In most cases, their contributions to society may be in big negative than anything else.

The officers with messianic zeal to serve the people and the nation are fast turning into endangered species. At this pace, they shall soon turn extinct. 

Recent scandals involving fresh-faced IAS officers—barely a few years into their service—signal not isolated moral lapses but a deep rot in the system. From Odisha’s Dhiman Chakma, the 2021-batch officer caught red-handed accepting a Rs 10 lakh bribe in June 2025 with Rs 47 lakh cash seized from his quarters to Pooja Singhal, the 2000-batch “young gun” reinstated in Jharkhand despite MGNREGA embezzlement charges, shatter the myth of youth as an antidote to corruption. Recently one Patel from Gujrat and another young woman Prabha Bhandari from custom service were caught on corruption charges. The real list may be much longer.

ALARMING RISE OF YOUNG "CORRUPTS" IN LIEU OF  YOUNG “TURKS” IN INDIAN CIVIL SERVICE

India’s civil services have more often attracted some of the nation’s brightest young minds. Many young officers were often known for acting with idealist passion and even taking strong position on issues in face of their seniors. More often, they had to be calmed to act with dispassion and convey their position in more non-confrontational ways.  But their idealist passion or energy of youth evoked hope for a better future for society.  

But in recent years, civil service has turned into a bastion of corruption ensnared youth. For example, Dhiman Chakma, once hailed as an inspiring Forest Service officer turned IAS, was caught demanding Rs 20 lakh from a businessman for file clearance in Kalahandi. Social media erupted with his old motivational videos juxtaposed against custody photos. A retired DGP was quoted lamenting how early career promise evaporates into graft.

Similarly, in Madhya Pradesh, a 2014-batch officer’s leaked chats exposed rampant mafia payoffs, alleging collectors poison CMs’ ears for transfers while honest ones languish. Gujarat’s Jaibir Singh (2023 arrest for transfer bribes) and Sanjay Popli (12 kg gold seized) underscore a pattern: Young officers, under 40, face disproportionate assets probes amid Rs 10-50 lakh hauls.

These aren’t anomalies. CBI and vigilance raids from 2024-2025 reveal a surge in corruption in India’s civil service. Few notable cases reported in media include Meghraj Singh Ratnu booked for disproportionate assets in Rajasthan to Vinod Kumar dismissed in Odisha’s housing scam. These are few cases that came to my notice from media. The total list, including those unreported in media and undetected by agencies, may be way too longer.

CORRUPTION: A MUCH DEEPER AND WIDER MALAISE

My friends in civil service disclose that the smarter and powerful lot among the corrupt in civil service can never get caught. They know how to game the system. From politicians to judiciary to big corporates, along with virtually all levels in civil service, have evolved corruption into a complex science and a brilliant art. It is "fools" and "desperate" among them who get exposed and caught.

I remember one of the personally incorruptible legendary politicians telling us during NDC lecture a decade back that a certain degree of corruption was inevitable for smooth functioning of systems in India. Problems arise only for those who exceed a known threshold level of graft in every department. But he alerted the absolutely incorruptible, particularly targeting me in the context of my previous diplomatic initiatives on foreign soil against mega arm kick-back accused, that entire system gets together, at least metaphorically, to hack the absolutely honest into pieces. Similar words of wisdom and advice I had received from many esteemed elders who had retired long back. I believe the entire situation has further evolved since then.

However, I had explained to them that I always respected corruption as "undeclared fundamental right of every clever Indian" as routine corruption in India was neither my priority nor did it come in professional jurisdiction. I also knew that no professional or leader in India in any sector can afford the luxury of thinking or acting like a “vigilance officer” or whistle blower. I was warned earlier that one can choose to stay honest as long as it did not seriously interfere with the "undeclared fundamental rights" of more powerful in the system. Else one’s entire life-time shall be consumed in these, without learning any professional-technical skills and contributing something substantial. 

But if one turned too flexible to accommodate such “undeclared fundamental right” of every well-connected clever Indian, one would be reduced into a vegetable without spine and bereft of any self-esteem. A society was certain to be subjugated and subverted if a significant number of its educated leaders in different spheres were robbed of, or surrendered, their self-esteem and self-belief. 

Hence, my only request to my seniors was not to use my shoulders for their such private agenda that were at the cost of public and national good. Similarly, I advised my juniors not to exercise their “unwritten fundamental right" in a manner that eroded my goals of institutional and professional excellence beyond a certain level. I pleaded with them to exercise their "right" in a manner where dents to the professional goals were compensated by energized performance. And the whole thing happened in a way that was outside may gauge, giving me enough head space to look the other way.

 But I was not in the mainstream civil service with public dealing. Barring few tenures, there was never an opportunity or space for any dispute over exercise of such undeclared fundamental right by any of my junior or senior colleagues. Fortunately, nearly all my seniors, except a small cartel that targeted me towards the end over my principled position, almost all my juniors respected the boundaries that I had politely outlined.

But following my retirement and greater interface with society, I am coming across a deeper and real exposure to realities in society. Almost a year or little earlier, a former Director of CBI, who can be counted as one of the few genuinely honest Chiefs that the agency may have had in decades, described the agency premises in a private discussion as one of the biggest “monuments of corruption” to my shock and surprise. Later, he told that society itself had got so polluted that systems cannot escape the stink. He maintained that it had become impossible to distinguish the honest and not so honest in almost every agency and individual officers alone cannot be blamed for the same. 

Regarding the number of cases that reach CBI, or lead to indictment over graft, may be too insignificant compared to the total volume of corruption in Govt or society. Besides, the bigger non-controversial issues are resolved smartly avoiding any tell-tale signs. There is a huge network for laundering the proceeds of graft. Law enforcement capacities shall probably always remain few decades behind advancements in domain of organised crime and big graft, despite all modern technologies of surveillance and investigation.

CORRUPTION IN CIVIL SERVICE: FLAWED STRUCTURES

What is intriguing that some of the young officers caught in graft had done extremely well in Ethic or integrity paper of UPSC for selection. One does not know whether to laugh or express shock at clerical psyche of great minds at UPSC or the nation. Given the wider dynamics of society, where corruption has become not merely an acceptable but the only way to survive and thrive in society, how can such examinations counter the wider effects of society? In reality, most, but not all, recruits are already psychologically conditioned to accept or co-exist with corruption even before they join service. Hence, Ethics paper can be gamed by smart dishonesty. Many have gamed even the highest distinctions and awards by fake performance proofs.  

Corruption and entitlement are inbuilt in the existing civil service structures. There may not be any other country on this planet that allows para-trooping of young recruits at the top of governance institutions in almost every department. They neither possess solid professional knowledge nor work experience to lead these institutions or departments when they take over initially. 

Such an arrangement was required by a colonising power in the 19th Century British India, who had to rule a large country with minimal number of incumbents. They did not trust the entire local population and lower rung local functionaries. It was the need to control a massive governance apparatus of a large country through a small number of loyal incumbents at the top that had necessitated the invention of the current model. This structure was designed to control the entire governance machinery and people through it. Optimising comprehensive output of society and state or empowerment of masses was never priority. Hence, loyalty mattered more than professional and technical competence.  

Initially, all incumbents of Indian civil services, under British India, were white English Male, and the very examination was conducted in London. Subsequently when locals were allowed, only few wealthy among them, who owed their wealth or freedom only to the loyalty towards the colonizer, were allowed to appear in the examination in London.

It is intriguing that why this relic raj has not been sufficiently improvised to address governance need of the largest democracy of the nation. Today, even Britain does not have such structures of civil service for itself. None of the developed countries allow generalist paratroopers at the top of their specialist institutions and that too on basis of information memorisation on issues that have no relevance to the jobs that they handle. 

It is baffling that why an independent India has not created a professional civil service where recruitments are based on a combination of aptitude, commitment and technical knowledge of a certain domain as well as wider empathy towards society. Intriguingly, there is absolutely no mandatory social or community service programme in entire education system that can foster stronger empathy, integrity or commitment to society or the nation among the youth. Unlike Japan or Singapore or Scandinavian countries, there is absolutely no special programme to imbibe ethics and integrity among school children, which is so crucial for a large and diverse country like India. 

How long can we escape our responsibility by blaming the British and the Mughals for our current woes? What prevents us from creating a better system of governance and education? Where we create an ethical citizenry from whom we select ethical functionaries of state. Or we build an entire societal ecosystem where integrity to flourish and thrive. 

Further, it is intriguing that incumbents do not get higher responsibilities on the basis of demonstrated domain expertise and leadership capacities and contributions. Rather than simple seniority and loyalty, or obedience, to the political masters determines. Of course, experience does prepare incumbents for certain higher leadership level roles. But it may not be sufficient for optimal output of individuals and institutions. Hence, more often senior civil servants turn complicit in agenda for power grab and power retention through any means or at any cost rather than public or national good.  

Situation has been further vitiated in Indian bureaucracy by identity-based reservations and promotions. Here any serious discussion on performance or accountability has potential to turn into acrimonious squabble over issues other than professionalism and excellence.

INDIVIDUAL BRILLIANCES AMIDST SYSTEMIC FLAWS  

Even in the current era, UPSC is driven by the assumption that memorisers of information shall make perfect leaders in civil service. There is nothing to evaluate integrity, ethic, aptitude, larger vision or domain knowledge or even leadership attributes in selection or allocation of professional roles. Important responsibilities are dependent more upon loyalty to a regime rather than ability and capacity to professionally contribute. So net result is emergence of an entitlement driven rent collecting class that stays loyal to the master at the top. This gets qualitatively better and bigger opportunities for rent collection. 

Yet it is beauty of family upbringing and societal ethic or individual influence of mentors that shaped many civil servants to stay honest and make significant contributions, despite systemic discouragements to excellence and integrity. One wonders if there is an attempt to re-shape or break these indigenous societal values and ethic also by larger opaque forces. This is especially given all round attack on social values and community cohesion of India through multiple channels and means. 

There is a strong case for restructuring the recruitment process of the UPSC as well as our entire education system. We are already in an era where machines do better memorisation than humans. AI can do better analysis and that too with greater consistency. 

Yet human mind can carry out far more innovation from the prism of enhancing the quality of social cohesion as well as quality of competition to foster higher quality of excellence in every human endeavour. 

Society needs genuine leaders in every sector who can rise beyond narrow and parochial considerations to contribute towards optimisation of comprehensive strengths of a society, state and civilisation. Ultimately, we need a mechanism where individuals and societies can mutually empower each other. This is one of the cardinal principles of Indocracy that I have outlined. 

Simultaneously, an intelligent and unethical, or psychologically deranged incumbent, is far more serious threat to society than a little less intelligent one. But ideally, an idealist, courageous domain expert with higher quality of character and integrity shall always make leader in administration and governance.

CORRUPTION: A SOCIETAL DISORDER THAT HAS TURNED GENETIC?

Corruption is not merely a moral or legal issue. It appears have got fused in the neural circuitry of most successful Indians. From cradle to grave an average Indian navigates varying degrees and forms of corruption that has become indispensable for sheer survival and prosperity of most Indians. Consequently, it has turned into a genetic, societal and systemic scourge that no agency or court can resolve.

I remember a young police officer, who had attended one of my lectures, ran into me at a social gathering at a common friend’s place few years back. Somehow discussions turned in a direction, when I started explaining importance of individual integrity for social trust to a group of doctors. Most of them were amused but were indulgently listening to me. 

At that time, I had very little realistic exposure to reality within our domestic governance systems. I have never worked in a public dealing job in India. In retrospect, I feel they must have found my idealistic naivete a novelty.

But soon this young officer serving in Delhi Police approached me and politely said that he had had a couple of drinks but was not intoxicated. But that had helped him gain confidence to pose few questions to me with candour. He posed these quite sincerely. These included: 

a) whether I knew if there existed any good school in Delhi where an average Indian could get his or her child admitted without making an underhand payment? Or 

b) was there any Govt hospital in Delhi where one could get good treatment with certainty without compromising one’s dignity if one did not go there on any reference from higher ups? Or

c)  if one could get any decent public service or tolerable life anywhere in the country if one did not have sufficient money or power and connections? 

There were many other questions s well. These were genuine and yet profound. He had said life was only one and only for few years. Why should people be expected to die and lead a deprived and wretched existence in name of integrity which was simply not sustainable within our society and systems. 

He finally asked me did I want younger officers to die in poverty and suffer in humiliation over hypocrisy of society? How long could one survive in civil service by disposing off modest inheritances to lead a reasonable comfortable life befitting one's social position? A time would come when nothing shall be left to even dispose off and life shall turn miserable and frustrating.    

He further added that any confrontation with any bigwig over integrity could leads to not merely suspension but even termination from service through blatant criminality and fraud. He also cited examples how he had helped some people on recommendations of elected representatives or even reputed civil society leaders to discover to his horror that those very intermediaries had exacted big financial favours from the beneficiaries in his very name without his knowledge.       

He gave me a primer on institutionalised corruption in all major police and civilian districts of the country as well as much more mega commercial corruption. Many deviations from rules or violation of laws were sources of income where proceeds got smoothly distributed. No one could dare touch these or protest it without a severe personal consequence. I definitely had serious knowledge about big globalised corruption and money laundering but not this aspect. 

He further assured me that in all cases of genuine humanitarian issues involving ordinary people, most decent officers do help the victim unconditionally and follow rules/laws to a high extent possible. This is a reality in all better police districts. In the remaining matters, the diktat of higher ups decides the course of events. On issues that are under severe public watch, most officers are careful to act with integrity and laws. Till date I admire worldly wisdom and forthright approach of this officer who was over a decade younger than me. Till date I have no valid answer to questions that he had posed. And yet I believe that we need to find a genuine, sustainable and humane solution rather than discrediting and punishing people. Ultimate objective is not to punish people but to better quality of governance and introduce fairness in the system.      

But shortly after that I was shocked to learn from daughter of a deceased ex Defence secretary that she had to pay a little bribe to get the death certificate of the old man who was from the hallowed IAS community. Amount was small but the anguish was big. In his life-time, the departed gentleman had the reputation of absolute incorruptibility and fearlessness. This was the brazen face of all pervasive mass corruption in the government.       

Following my own retirement as well as such interactions, I have learned that the entire system gangs up against the genuinely honest and upright. And once they are out of the system, neither courts nor society and not even the people whom they have helped standby the so-called perceived crusaders. In few rare cases, honest incumbents in judiciary, who do exist, may do justice without any consideration. Otherwise, the honest civil servants of India are condemned to meet a wretched and ignominious end.  They suffer in a largely soulless society but in long run the society too suffers. 

Sadly, we are living in an era, where honesty has been converted into almost suicidal path to life. 

But a deeper analysis suggests that most of our governance and bureaucratic systems have been designed to stay sub-optimal in output. Most of its incumbents have been bribed or silenced with threats to keep the system the way it exists. Hence, Govt functionaries are encouraged to extract a certain threshold level of graft. The volume depends upon their enterprise and equations in each context. This in turn silences them forever from resisting bigger wrongdoings against society. It is few over greedy who can't resist the temptation get caught. Yet within them, there is a microscopic minority that is mentally so strong that despite being aware of all realities, choose to stay personally incorruptible.   

But those who are well connected even among the tainted officers, can easily override all setbacks and negative press like Singhals of Jharkhand.  

LARGER ECOSYSTEM   

Transparency International notes India’s CPI score stagnant at 38/100, with 55% blaming bureaucrats. Probably the issue is much deeper.

Until recently, the corrupts in the higher civil service were too far and few. But their numbers have increased. They are now fast turning into a national menace, causing serious obstructions to governance, industry and enterprise. It is wider changes in society and economy that has driven the multiplication in scale and volume of corruption. Containment of this menace to a manageable level to protect our economic growth, social stability and internal security, shall require comprehensive reforms in multiple institutions. There has not been much of a serious thinking in this direction.

One of the senior most retired cops had told me last year in presence of a lawyer friend: “integrity in Indian civil service is a highly expensive luxury that is affordable only for the crusaders willing to lay down their lives.” 

It is important that the entire cost - not the financial alone- of integrity is brought down to make it affordable for all. This is both within and outside civil service. Law and courts are insufficient for this.

I remember many police officers boasting that “right and wrong are irrelevant”. They used to assert that "Indian laws and systems have been designed in a way that anything could be lawfully established against anyone if an IO of police acts smartly." 

I am not sure if unsmart people have taken over now who need to destroyed integrity of both media and courts for this goal of establishing anything against anyone they choose. 

 I have stated in my posts that many of our courts routinely, willfully and knowingly slaughter justice on grounds other than ignorance or incompetence. Even the former Chief Justice of India has conceded the same sentiment in a different language. Yet crusaders do exist even in judiciary and they are the only silver lining in an otherwise decaying system. 

But ordinary citizens in this country appear helpless. Corruption appears fused in our systems, psyche, governance procedures and norms. These make corruption a norm and integrity an exception. 

Yet it is beauty of society that few insane, despite being aware of all the pitfalls of staying honest, prefer to do so almost everywhere but more so in civil service and few even in judiciary. They are mocked, jeered and ridiculed and often contemptuously labelled as “crusaders” or “idealist fools” and yet they persist, persevere and offer hope to society. 

 CORRUPTION:  A THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY 

 Corruption is not merely a moral issue. It eats up life blood of a society. From poor infrastructure to poor health of citizens to bad hospitals to municipal dirt to poor schools to weak and dysfunctional criminal justice system to low social trust to sub-optimal growth in both private and public sector, or virtually everything negative in society can be attributed to corruption. It erodes quality of life of an individual and quality of social trust and physical infrastructure and natural environment. In nutshell it weakens the entire society and the nation.   

Corruption kills excellence and innovation in every human endeavour. This is what explains, we are considered largely a society of traders and brokers and not innovators and genuine leaders. 

Corruption is an invisible war against the nation that is slowly eating up our relative strength in a globalised and increasingly unsafe world. And yet we may not feel so as a society. Because a large percentage of our elite have been corrupted and are compelled to keep quite on this issue. 

This is no fault of ordinary people. It is entirely the fault of innovators, thinkers and big stakeholders of society. If a certain small percentage of people are corrupt in a society, probably they are wrong. But when 90-95% or more percentage of elite are perceived to be corrupt, probably the entire systems are flawed.  

No one is perfect in this world. But we as a society can least afford the scourge of corruption given our security threats and governance constraints. We are located in the most difficult regions of the world with most formidable governance challenges. On less than 4% of land mass, 25% of human race lives in South Asia. We do not have much of natural resources like Africa, Central and West Asia or Latin America or Russia and United State. We lack economic, technological, military and governance prowess of China or developmental levels of Europe. 

Additionally, the cancer of xenophobic Islamic radicalism is being relentlessly peddled through a monster named Pakistan. This has already crippled our optimal rise as a nation. Similarly, smarter geopolitical strategies of China have ensured that we can never compete with them or pose any challenge to their political, military and even economic domination  of the region. 

In a globalised world, corruption is the vehicle vide which external forces create support base within any state to cripple their all round prowess. This can be extended to shape even psyche of large majority of population to normalise inefficiency and under development. Corruption provides the primary support base for organised crime, which in turn retards integrity of governance systems. 

We have seen, how an ecosystem of corruption created a situation in a state where personal security guards of a Head of Govt are suspected of facilitating abduction of the entity that they were guarding. If there is a high tolerance to corruption, the networks of corruption shall flourish and expand to eventually subvert and penetrate even the most scared arms of the state and society. This can cripple and crush capacities of any state to even protect itself.   

The response to corruption cannot be imprisonment and jail for each and every accused. No civilised state with developmental aspirations can afford to be converted into police state or the entire country cannot be converted into a prison where our entire elite are incarcerated. Some mega corrupts though need to be sent to jail only to make an example out of them. This rarely happens or shall never be possible in a substantially corrupt state and society.  Our approach should focus more on guarding our citizenry from falling prey to corruption. Primary responsibility of a civilized state is to protect citizens and not create grounds to coerce them. 

Hence, it is more important that we radically restructure our institutions to optimise and encourage genuine wealth creation through enterprise and industry and minimise parasitism in every sector.  We cannot afford a situation where half of our productive population is converted into the accused in corruption and crime and other half is turned into police. This will destroy our entire productive energies as a nation.

We need to create a right culture of integrity and social trust. This is possible only by creating right role models to begin with. Ultimately, we have to reduce the very space and causatives for both need and greed driven corruption. This calls for very high quality of innovations and leadership in Governance. Unfortunately, there seems no hope on horizon.       

I shall write another post to explain why and how a wider ecosystem of corruption in politics, corporate sector and society impact corruption in civil service and how my concept of Indocracy - a fusion of eternal ancient values of India and contemporary Western scientific practices- offers solutions in this direction.

PS: Kindly ignore typos.