When "Cockroach" Youth Capture Imagination of the Nation

"Cockroach" Youth Capture Imagination  

I was planning to write the second part of my series on Judiciary which I had commenced posting last weekend. But it is impossible not to reflect upon the agitation by youth under the banner of “Cockroach Janata Party”. It has captured the imagination of the nation and won hearts of people by sheer romanticism of innocence, integrity and defiance identified with youth. There are disturbing aberrations as well and some of them have been heard using objectionable and not so decent language. Yet most of them, unlike spoiled brats of India's nouve rich and powerful getting in news for all the wrong reasons, seem to nurture a dream for a better future for themselves as well as entire society. Majority appear fairly grounded. This again reflects innate strength of society and upbringing, which is definitely not consistent. The Government has clearly come under pressure and started negotiations with them making many tactical concessions and yet held its ground on many issues.  It is not clear whether this agitation shall end if specific grievance on NEET paper leak is addressed or it may embrace other issues of governance failures. 

Initially the ruling dispensation and its troll army had sought to defame and de-legitimise the young protestors as well as their symbolic and moral anchor– Sonam wangchuk- through a narrative war. There were attempts to paint the agitators as proxies of global deep state and mainstream media either ignored them or projected them in disparaging light, questioning their integrity and intent. But the damage control exercise was initiated only after clear public indignation over the way police treated the young protestors. There is a potential that the "Cockroach Janata Party" may persist and, if guided and anchored by wise and sensible elders like Wangchuk and may be others, it can become an agent for a bi-partisan transformation in governance systems. But the process shall not be easy, given the deep entrenchment of powerful vested interests thriving in all segments of economy and society.

Ironically, the nomenclature “Cockroach” of this new group was triggered by a disdainful and dismissive remark towards youth of the country by none less than the Hon’ble Chief Justice of India (CJI) himself. Though intense public scrutiny on social media compelled him to cover up his words with big plaudits on youth of the nation, but the damage had already been done. Ironically, the incumbent CJI himself has been in line of public anger more than once over his words and actions in a manner that impacts credibility and image of judiciary. He has repeatedly appeared insensitive towards citizens and docile towards political executive. A group of enterprising youth chose to float an entity named "Cockroach Janata Party" in a clear mood of defiance against the highest functionary of judiciary most of whose recent judgments over the last decade have increasingly projected the judiciary as a subservient arm of the executive.   

 Since the beginning of this century, a host of factors have unleashed a sustained process of subversion of institutions in most democracies, but the challenges are far more formidable in India, given its size and constraints. But attack on integrity and autonomy of institutions have appeared more direct or brazen over the last one decade in India. Nothing can be more painful, generating an ambience of hopelessness and despair if institution of judiciary loses its credibility and impartiality. If private considerations or external pressures, or sheer ignorance, force the highest incumbents in judiciary to deviate from ideals of rule of rule or lose empathy for people and youth, it will be end of a civilisation and our humanis traditions that we boast of. 

Free press and free media have always been the biggest guarantors of individual freedom, dignity and security. These act as the biggest bulwark against atrocities by criminalised gangs or even isolated thugs who can potentially capture sections of state machineries. They may run a parallel system to pursue a private agenda in the name of state. 

Sadly, both free press and free judiciary in India appear to have shifted in political ICU amidst serious subversion of our entire political space. Nearly all political parties are caught in a trap of opaque funding, unavoidable corruption, deliberate subversion of state institutions besides nepotism and cronyism of the worst kind. This is not a new phenomenon and it would be grossly unfair to blame anyone individual or entity. But probably its intensity has never been felt as high over the last five decades or so. While there is world-wide erosion in integrity of institutions, humanity shall suffer immeasurably if Indian democracy continues to lose its direction. I have always believed that India needs to spearhead many innovations in democracy and one of these have to be reform in political parties. This is not about political finding alone. Apart from transparent funding, we need a general culture of leadership, high quality discourse and a wider culture of fair competition within and among political parties. The challenge is huge but not impossible. 

Larger Pent-Up Mass Anguish 

Despite primary focus of the current youth protest being restricted to grievances over NEET paper leak, the mass outrage reflects a larger a pent-up frustration over poor governance, failed promises and a vindictive and oppressive abuse of coercive power of the state against unarmed citizen. Face of the agitation, Sonam Wangchuk, an educationist and innovator from the frontier region of Ladakh, was able to inspire the youth across the nation, in what appeared an inherent manifestation of psychological, emotional and cultural cohesion of the world's most populous nation with the longest and oldest humanist roots.

A dispensation that has appeared consistently arrogant, oppressive and vindictive towards any citizen who has been even remotely critical of its actions or outlook, and particularly targeted apolitical ethical civil servants and contributors to security and progress of the nation, initially responded with war-like bellicosity towards unarmed protestors. Police Commissioner of Delhi was abruptly shunted out on the noon of July 17 and within hours of taking charge, the new police Commissioner ordered a brutal crackdown on protestors. Sonam Wangchuk was forcibly shifted to a Govt hospital in the early morning of July 18 and scores of unarmed protestors were assaulted. Many young people were seen standing calmly and bleeding and yet armed cops were violently assaulting them with batons, even without provocation. Many Delhi police personnel or suspected thugs from the ruling party were also seen in civil dress and slippers assaulting protestors. Young women were also not spared. Male cops were seen slapping and assaulting female protestors and, as per a viral video on social media, one male cop was seen trying to poke a stick into private parts of a fleeing female protestor.

Though Government appears to have temporarily climbed down from high mountains of arrogance to talk to the protestors, but its focus remains restricted to deflecting the present crisis rather than mending the flaws that led to the crisis or initiating remedial measures to bolster the quality of governance and efficacy of institutions. Some heads have rolled but only in bureaucracy. The Government has been adamant upon protecting the Education Minister, who, according to most impartial and apolitical observers, should have taken responsibility and quit. 

Why Must The Movement Remain Apolitical 

The protesting youth, driven by a dream for a better India, need to protect apolitical character and integrity of their movement. Moment they allow their platform to be politicized, they may lose credibility, focus and purpose. It is deep-rooted systemic contradictions that have thrown up a political-governance model that has been causing larger sufferings and occasional crises. Instead of expecting a change of heart in our political class, they must look for transformation of this political-governance structure. This will never be easy in immediate future. 

Nearly a decade and half back, Delhi Police, under a different dispensation had also unleashed violent crack-down on protestors who were sitting on hunger strike. Though a politically inclined Yog Baba had to run away in female robes, probably as part of a deceptive strategy of cops, he permanently lost his credibility. Agitating youth must appreciate successive political and police establishments have been more or less same. Indian police has been perennially loyal to political masters and not people of this country and Constitution of the nation. Simultaneously, opportunist sections of the society, lacking character and ethic, always seek to fish in troubled waters. This calls for greater vigil.

A big majority of agitating youth have shown enormous composure and calm, despite aberrations by many immature and naive ones among them. Yet their leadership needs to be careful that their movement is neither polluted nor hijacked by any vested group or force, especially if they aspire to build a better world for themselves and the entire citizenry of India to inspire rest of the humanity.   

Most spontaneous mass agitations by relatively naïve or political greenhorns, struggle to guard against infiltration by negative elements.  Many undesirable elements have crept in to this movement as well. Certain Islamist zealots have been seen carrying flags of Islamist nations and radical group and shouting provocative sectarian slogans. Suspected criminals and thugs have also been seen assaulting cops and journalists or using foul language.  Simultaneously, individuals perennially known for strident views against unity and integrity of the nation, and suspected links with hostile external forces have also graced the stage of this agitation. 

This is inevitable when a large protest takes place as all and sundry with an agenda against the establishment come together. But the credibility of the ruling dispensation appears so low that many apolitical observers have expressed apprehension that the Govt itself may have infiltrated some criminal elements to defame and discredit the protestors through a narrative warfare. Some armed individuals have also been apprehended enroute the protest site. While some police men and women have been gracious and even agitators have also been seen helping cops suffering from commotion, it is most unfortunate that some cops have been seen threatening to frame the protestors or brutalising them or damaging their own vehicles or public property with malicious intent.  

Amidst these developments, almost entire political opposition of India has latched on this opportunity and tried to hijack this agitation for their own partisan gains. However, there is hardly anything substantive or remedial or constructive vision that has come out from them. No government controls a magic wand to do things perfectly. Ability of a government - to do good or bad- depends upon quality of institutions. Quality of institutions depend upon larger societal, economic, political, security and geopolitical equations. Yet powerful ideas and extra ordinary leaders- with exceptional integrity and resilience- can transform these at accelerated pace. There is enormous and persistent poverty of leaders with these qualities in entire political space of India. 

Leader of Opposition of the country, also tried to hijack this agitation for his own agenda to change the Government or replace the Prime Minister. Of course, it is his right to act in this direction and nurture such aspiration. But any change in Government without any serious and credible vision or blue-print for improvement in the governance apparatus does not inspire confidence.  He claimed that all security personnel, even while dragging him during his brief sit in at Prime Minister’s residence, whispered in his ears to topple the incumbent Government. This is possible. 

 But many critics of the Government have perennially described LoP as the biggest source of strength of the present Government. His sibling and her spouse had once been touted as the biggest symbol of nepotistic and crony corruption. Many believe that, despite a fairly formidable army of volunteers of this party, the Government itself might have invited him to join the agitation to take the sting out of the student agitation. At least a section of Indians still dread the return of Vadranomics despite all extra ordinary personal qualities of the Leader of Opposition, whose grace, decency and civility remain unparalleled in Indian political space. 

But at this juncture of history, a large country like India needs statesman-like vision, integrity and courage from any challenger to the Govt.  Only a genuine campaign to reconstruct and re-build more powerful institution that history has ever seen can extricate India from its current challenges. Sadly, the entire Indian political space badly lacks such idea or leaders with such vision, credibility and acceptability.

A Deeper and Strategic Approach

  Something like paper a leak in an examination, or any crisis of this nature or a brutal state oppression, is manifestation of larger dysfunctionality of systems. Where corruption, dishonesty and disdain toward masses have become a way of life for people with access to power and authority.

Systems have been rendered helpless because the most offenders enjoy political or criminal patronage. They cannot be prevented and deterred by the routine functioning of the state. If few spirited incumbents in civil service or police or judiciary attempt to stop such criminals and stand by people or seek to uphold long-term interests of the nation, they face vehement all-round clandestine multi-faceted covert war. These vary from narrative warfare to public defamation by a pliable media to economic strangulation to physical intimidation and assault and even beyond. Ironically, entire political class appears on same page against such crusaders and Judiciary more often acts as passive approver, if not active collaborator. This is indeed dangerous for long-term sanctity of institutions as well as our progressive evolution as a state, society and civilisation. 

Even a rigged and oppressive system, always maintains space for VVIPs who can get certain things done through their power and authority. At time the highest functionaries of the state appear the biggest patron of forces subverting rule of law. Hence, wherever stakes are high for these VVIPs or the patrons of system, smaller subversives - out of their deference towards their patrons or for the sake of their own survival- may relent or conceded in certain instances. But this does not change the basic character of the system and offer no guarantee against other disguised or open injustices. 

Hence, there is a strong possibility that some of the paper leak offenders may get punished in this case. There is no guarantee that paper leak shall stop permanently or India's educational system shall get better. 

Latest media reports suggest that initial suspected kingpins in NEET paper leak have been given clean chit by CBI. Going by my familiarity with the culture of loyalty among a section of cops and judiciary towards rulers that they may definitely punish some people but those need not be real culprits. 

However, such isolated punishments are no solution to dysfunctional institutions. Besides, this is not the only challenge facing the education system or our youth of the nation.  India needs a comprehensive and total re-think on agenda and strategy of governance to put people at the centre instead of few VIPs or families or corporates or civil servants. 

A decade back, the country had witnessed massive agitation over Nirbhaya assault case. Yet that did not stop the wider trend of such brutal and heinous assaults on the women of the country. Many powerful members from ruling and even non-ruling political parties, among others, have faced charges of brutalising women. 

Unless state attempts to address the underlying causes of a crisis, which is a fundamentally flawed political-governance-bureaucratic-judicial and social-economic order, such larger sufferings and injustice, and worse shall remain inevitabilities.

Need to Build Robust Institutions

The biggest challenge facing India faces at this stage of its evolution is sub-optimal, deficient and poor governance. Assault on integrity and efficacy of key state institutions is not monopolised by any particular political party. The political systems and political parties in their current form pose the biggest threat to integrity and efficacy of institutions, especially amidst the pressure of larger global ecosystem that appears highly exploitative to developing nations like ours.  

Despite all positive contributions by Indians in different spheres of human existence, the existing political-governance model is the primary cause for governance failures and humanitarian crises that we keep facing. In fact, political class - within the existing parameters - can do very little to address most governance failures or offer a strategic solution to our challenges. They are more obsessed with grabbing power through every possible means. 

They cannot be faulted for the same because each are involved in the same and there are no effective regulations or barriers. Clandestine subversion of integrity of governance institutions by political cliques and cartels are inescapable necessities for survival of this political model. We need a serious transformation in the entire political-economic-governance processes in our democracy. Hence, unless the political class builds a larger consensus on quality of regulations on political competition as well as invites and invests powerful ideas towards institution building and protection of sanctity institutions, our challenges, difficulties and woes shall persist. 

Road To Future

Popular mass movements in journey of a state and civilisation offer avenues for course correction and remedial measures. But it depends upon a culture of wider sagacity and integrity as well as a higher degree of trust among all key stakeholders.

Irrespective of what happens from here, I can only say that this is an opportunity for bigger reforms in our entire governance system. Probably, many segments of state and society shall be more amenable to larger changes in wake of this youth movement. The ongoing youth movement has brought about a rare opportunity for entire society. 

Government of the day must not hesitate in sacrificing few of its political associates as well. Incumbents in bureaucracy and media need to search their soul with greater integrity. It can also be an opportunity to both co-opt and yet silence political opposition by making bolder concessions to the people while striking at political opportunists and parasites. But ultimate objective of stateman like ruthlessness has to be larger good of the nation and a civilisation. 

No individual is more important than stability of the systems and credibility of the Government. No Govt appears weak by being amenable to popular sentiments. 

I have always maintained that the gravest threat to a large state seldom emanates from invading armies. It is more often the silent and unnoticed capture of state institutions by self-seeking cartels for their own private gains. Such a phenomenon gradually erodes not only the credibility of state but retards the quality of progress and evolution of entire state and society. 

Such dynamics, if unchecked and unremedied, can lead to situation where the very capacity of state to protect and uphold its most critical interests- including its long-term stability and security, as well life, liberty and dignity of its citizens- can be paralysed.  This is what has perennially defined the decay, degeneration and downfall of big powers and empires.

Institutional capture is a reality in India. Larger wellbeing of the people and the nation require infusion of credibility and efficacy in all our institutions. Political and administrative class of the nation need utmost innovation to devise least painful and yet effective ways to bolster capacity of our institutions. They must build larger consensus on the same. That alone can prevent, preempt and deter humanitarian and man- made crises in all domains of governance. 

            **************************************

WHEN GRACE IS NOT ENOUGH: WHY MUST JUDICIARY SEARCH ITS SOUL (Part-1)

Patriotism, courage, integrity and empathy must never be monopoly of soldiers alone in a healthy and vibrant society. A society derives its strength from ability of its citizens to wield these attributes optimally in all circumstances. In democracies, members of judiciary must embody these qualities much more than others. If they falter or appear deficient, both our democracy and sovereignty run the risk of being clandestinely hijacked even without a war. A dynamic, fair and just judiciary not only delivers justice to individuals but also conditions psyche of an entire society by instilling and reinforcing right values among its people. It is dominant values in a society that shapes the evolutionary course of an entire civilisation in every era.

 When a mentally unstable and deranged individual resorted to abusive language, hurling the most offensive personal expletives against the Chief Justice of India, during live proceedings in the highest court of law in the country, it was more than a personal misconduct. It exposed the vulgar underbelly of eroding public trust in our key institutions and vanishing norms of decency in public spaces. Alternatively, one can also argue that dysfunctional, apathetic and insensitive criminal justice system of India is negatively impacting mental health of citizens at a scale of an epidemic.  Barring members of legal community and few apparently pro-Govt quarters, most of netizens hailed the offender as "Hero". This only reflects pent up frustration in society against the judiciary for reasons that appear more right than wrong.

2. Initial media reports stated that the court did not initiate contempt proceedings against the offender but has dismissed his petition. I sincerely believe, with all my respect for wisdom, grace and magnanimity of the Hon’ble judges, as evidenced in their restrained approach, that the highest court of the land has gravely faltered. It has chosen to brush aside, or cover up, the larger underlying issue of dysfunctional justice delivery system that has been inflicting immeasurable scar on collective psyche of entire citizenry. Simultaneously, it has also normalised, if not encouraged, attack on esteem and respect of the highest court and its incumbents. Yet I believe that esteem and credibility of the courts suffer far more at the hands of incompetent or ethically challenged and compromised judges than anyone else.

3. By dismissing the petition, the Court has clearly shirked its responsibility of delivering justice under all circumstances. It would have been more generous and honourable for the court to send the offender to a mental health correctional facility, for rehabilitation, and yet examine the issues raised by him as fairly as possible. This would have been a step in direction of restoring credibility and esteem of the judiciary in eyes of the people while setting red-line for conduct in the courts.

4. I believe that a modern welfare state can ensure its own strategic stability and long-term progress only by adhering to the ideals of sagacious benevolence through a mechanism of firm rule of law. State institutions need much deeper wisdom and integrity to guard larger good of public and citizens where generosity and firmness are combined optimally as per requirements in each context. Every act of disciplining has to be driven by the larger goals and principles of enlightened statecraft that must build a mutually empowering equilibrium between individual and state.

5. State - including all its arms, viz; legislative, executive and judiciary- are expected to do their best to not only protect lives, liberty and dignity of citizens but also ensure creation of such conditions in society where people- individually and collectively – can live a life that is optimally free from anxiety, fear, disease, disorder and stress. The courts in India have repeatedly been faltering in playing their own role through deterrent verdicts. Here, they failed to intervene in a clear specific instance where an individual was suffering from abnormal mental disorder. It may be debatable if this abnormality was outcome of genetic disorders or oppression by functionaries of the state or a hopeless societal ecosystem for masses created by dysfunctional governance. Besides, even if the approach of the litigant was objectionable, it did not deprive him of his constitutional rights of judicial remedy.  Hon’ble Courts, despite misconduct or mental imbalance of the litigant, could have taken cognizance of the issue raised by the litigant and may be appointed an "amicus curiae" to arrive at a just, fair and an exemplary order in the interest of justice. By doing this, the Hon'ble court would have upheld the cardinal principle of justice, pronounced in the famous English case [R v Sussex Justices, ex parte McCarthy (1924)] that: "Not only must justice be done; it must also be seen to be done"  or "Justice should not only be done but should manifestly and undoubtedly be seen to be done". The court instead chose to play to the gallery and landed in a lose-lose situation for society and state as well as itself.

6. This episode, heralds beginning of a dangerous era in the history of Indian democracy. When assault on dignity and esteem of judiciary invites public cheer instead of universal indignation and condemnation.  The prevailing political-governance – corporate equilibrium, amidst persistent allegations or perception of rampant corruption and manipulation of key institutions, including judiciary, may erode public trust in state institutions to a level that may seriously impact our stability, security and progress as a nation. Powerful opaque global forces, patronising transnational mercenary networks, including internal cartels within developing nations, may be emboldened to further subvert integrity and efficacy of our institutions. There shall be more coercion, intimidation, bullying and targeting to de-legitimise innovators and leaders not only in judiciary but in all spheres of national security, including high-end scientific and technological domains. This is a known mode of covert warfare used in pursuit of geopolitical objectives. Institution of judiciary particularly runs the risk of being unwittingly coopted, at least partially, as a passive approver or active collaborator in larger subversion of rule of law as well as security and progress of the nation.

7. Hence, we need a serious, dispassionate and an enlightened bi-partisan examination of state of judiciary in India, not merely from the prism of law and societal morality, but also from the larger perspective and principles of statecraft. The sole objective of such discourse must be guarding comprehensive and sustained advancement of our state and civilisation lest these are damaged irreparably in pursuit of partisan agenda or greed to hold on to power by certain incumbents of state. Such a scenario is particularly worrying in a volatile, competitive and trust-eroding world.  Powerful states and global cartels are harnessing their technological and otherwise prowess to devise increasingly refined tools, techniques and strategies to subvert institutions in other states. The zero-sum geopolitical chess of global and regional domination has never been driven by an innocent sense of civilisational superiority alone. Clandestine plunder and pillage of the targeted states is invariably an integral component of such agenda. This calls for creation of a permanent equation of exploitative subjugation. This is what has defined the strategic psyche of major powers and civilisations, barring few significant exceptions. Colonialism was a manifestation of the same. But the modes of subjugation and exploitative equation may be much more subtle to sustain in the current era. As under-developed nations with large territories, big population and dwindling natural resources, get increasingly trapped in a spiral of stagnation, poor cohesion and sub-par governance, they shall lose their global relevance. This will make their nationals, irrespective of private wealth of few, increasingly vulnerable in a globalised world that is shedding many of its norms. A spiral of fragile institutions, corruption and under development can virtually choke a society to extinction.   

8. It has been scientifically assessed that some of the major global powers as well as opaque non-state global cartels, have been using their longstanding well-entrenched networks, often in conjunction with each other, in the developing world to further their agenda. They not merely subvert but even take over few key institutions of relatively fragile states that offer big markets or produce some precious commodities. Institutional constraints add to vulnerabilities, especially threshold of tolerance to corruption is high. An army of local partners, including those in higher position, join the larger mission willingly or unknowingly. If such dynamics gains momentum beyond a certain level, it can virtually paralyse the capacity of targeted states to protect even its most critical interests. Despite an outward façade of democracy and sovereignty, a state can lose control over its key institutions to hostile networks. These very institutions can be used to the detriment of the very stability and progress of such a state and its people. 

9. Amidst such an environment, a smarter strategy shall not be draining energies of a state in chasing foreign or global cartels within institutions to pin them down in courts of law. Glaring instances must invite deterrent punishments through law. Yet, it will be a better strategy to create an integrated institutional framework of governance that fosters excellence and innovation and denies space for subversion. Judiciary has to play an inviolable and pivotal role in such an arrangement. Its focus must be more on encouraging institutions to prevent and preempt violations of laws rather than generation of employment for litigation lawyers. Every matter that reaches courts must lead to verdicts that set exemplary deterrence against any assault on social and national cohesion or rule of law. A fair, transparent and efficient judiciary can optimise capacity of society to throw up powerful ideas, leaders and innovators and yet foster a culture of trust, collaboration and fairer competition. The same can accelerate the pace and enhance quality of progress of an entire state and civilisation, positively impacting the quality of evolutionary journey of humanity well beyond national boundaries.

                                    (To Be Continued)

⚽BRAZIL’S EXIT FROM FIFA WORLD CUP: LESSONS FOR DEMOCRACIES FROM SOCCER FIELD

         The world comes under the grip of soccer maniac during every FIFA world cup. Probably there is no other sport that exemplifies a unique combination of fitness or agility of body and mind, team spirit and fair-play and yet people relate with it. Most must have played this game, which otherwise appears one of the least expensive sport. Children all over the world can be seen playing it in neighbourhood parks and even streets.  

The Lesson from Soccer Field

Brazil’s shock defeat to Norway is more than a sporting upset. It was a parable for democracies that discard fair competition and worship entitlement.

Brazil’s effortless flair, rhythm and reputation were insufficient in face of Norway’s discipline. The scoreline was not just a result; it was a reminder that excellence is earned, never inherited. Legacy dazzles only until reality demands performance.

Every triumph is built on sweat, preparation, and relentless pursuit of excellence. Yet beyond individual victories, the real winner is the game itself, which keeps evolving, forever raising the bar of excellence. It bolsters cohesion of nations, especially winners, bringing cheer and stronger self-esteem for every citizen. World celebrates fair play and the forever quest for excellence in non-violent way. In the end, it is triumph of human spirit to compete, collaborate and trust each other.     

Democracy’s Invisible Engine

Fair competition powers democracy as much as it powers sport. Autocracies, dictatorships and oligarchies or all shades of non-democracies do not subscribe to the idea of fair competition outside sporting arenas. But competition, collaboration, mutual respect or integrity, altruism and social trust constitute the bedrock of any healthy democracy in all spheres of its existence. Probably the world shall take a long time to evolve to such a level. 

Yet as someone who believe that India must spearhead the very idea of democracy, I do feel disturbed that we are not progressing probably in the right direction at right pace. We do not appear to be even in the right trajectory to sustain a healthy people-centered system, leave aside evolve it. Our politics clings to dynasties, bureaucracy thrives on lifelong entitlements often without conscience and accountability, and judiciary appears more often choking and slaughtering justice rather than delivering it with consistency and integrity. Elections are fought with passion but rarely with purpose and commitment to transform the plight of the nation and its people. Bureaucrats appear guarding their turf more fiercely than experimenting innovation or chasing excellence. Judges escape consequences of their haughty and high-handed assault on justice and rule of law. This is not to deny big contributions to security and progress of this nation by many exceptional souls who have been part of these very institutions.  

In governance, consequences of entitlement is deadlier than defeat on the sporting pitch. Brazil’s stumble reminds us: legacy is no guarantee of excellence. Norway’s victory is a lesson from sport to democracy— merit is more formidable than pedigree and preparation can outclass reputation.

India’s Sporting Irony

    India’s absence from the FIFA World Cup is a metaphor for its democratic malaise. Once semi‑finalists at the 1956 Melbourne Olympics and twice Asian Games champions, India now languishes at 138th in FIFA rankings. In 2015, even Maldives, Nepal, and Bangladesh ranked higher.

    Such tragedy may not be an outcome of lack of talent but suffocation of competition way beyond sporting pitch. Out entire political, governance and corporate systems have created few bigger poles. These reward loyalty over merit. Bureaucracy prizes obedience, procedures and rent-collection over performance and selfless contribution to society and the nation. Corporates are committed more to their own enrichment and expansion rather than contributing to comprehensive and sustained advancement of entire nation. Amidst this background, all our institutions are clinging more to status quo than innovation, pushing hope for a change on backfoot. It is heartening to see our democracy votes energetically but our systems work lethargically and appear more driven to cater to private agenda of few than building the entire nation.

The Paradox of Freedom

    A nation that celebrates liberty too often crushes competition. Democracy more often appears a mechanical choreography without soul, ritual without substance. Like Brazil’s stumble, India’s claim as the largest democracy with formidable civilisational root appears a satire. A civilisation that once sprinted in every dimension of human existence saw its nadir of prolonged foreign rule to regain its freedom with huge sacrifices in blood. But now it appears trapped in a labyrinthine web of rigged system and dishonest psyche. These make our progress a hostage to procedural marathons of our unaccountable and rent-collecting bureaucracy. Hence, as nation we more often confuse ritual with performance.

Norway’s triumph over Brazil is not a lesson in soccer alone. It is about strength of human spirt to outclass bigger and far more formidable challenges, despite all other constraints, if they institutionalize fairness, trust, cooperation, collaboration and genuinely fair competition. The biggest strength of democracy or any healthy society is fair competition. This alone can optimise its strength. World shall not be fair and just. But an internally fair and just society is always better adapted to negotiate more formidable external challenges and threats. A democracy without fair competition and robust rule of law is only a disguised autocracy or oligarchy or plutocracy or whatever name we choose. In a competitive world it shall always struggle to defend, protect and empower its people.

The Call for Introspection

    A great society must always value performance over reputation and entitlement.  This is not a luxury but a critical necessity if it cares for its long-term progress and security.  

    India must refine and re-define its democracy through a genuine spirt of fair competition. This alone can help it rediscover the vibrant rhythm of life that must have resonated on banks of Sindhu, Ganga, Godavari, Krishna, Narmada and so many other rivers that have shaped our evolution making the whole of Indian subcontinent a distinct civilisation that contributed to progress, tranquility and happiness far beyond our borders. The same spirit once resonated from Bamiyan and Takshashila to Ceylon and Serendib in South and expanding from Bagan in Burma to Angkorwat in Cambodia to Ayuthaya in Thailand, Vat Phou in Laos to Cham in Vietanam, covering through Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Malaya, Singhapura and traversing through Bali, Borobudur and Pramban in Indonesia and going all the way to Japan and Far East. We must never aim at imposing our identity on the world but resurrect those great values of quest for excellence, innovation, social trust, collaboration and fair competition that soccer represents in a somewhat direct form of activity and sport. 

    Only genuine competition can throw up great leaders who rise above rhetoric. Fair and just competition driven by integrity alone can create institutions that prize innovation, excellence and social good that can make a nation and civilisation dazzles to usher in universal hope. Stadiums have the capacity to inspire tech labs than can propel industrial zones to new heights of excellence expanding beyond maritime frontiers.

Brazil will bounce back; its ecosystem for soccer is robust. 

But will India and Indians dare to dream, compete and excel? 

From health and fitness to sporting arena and world of trade, industry, education, military and tech innovations to social and national cohesion?

                                    **************************************** 

US-IRAN PEACE: NEED FOR RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT

Over-View

Successful conclusion of first round of negotiations at Bürgenstock and Lucerne, following the signing of Memorandum of Understanding, between United States and Iran has ushered in hope for peace- howsoever uneasy and fragile - in West Asia. Oil prices have dropped, markets have rallied globally and world has had a sigh of relief at least for the time being.  Disruption of energy supply chains has already induced significant GDP losses, lower growth forecasts, higher inflation and serious market volatility.

US-Iran war has once again exposed the limits of conventional military power to vanquish a resolute and resilient force in an asymmetric war in a complex geopolitical theatre. Iran, despite enduring severe devastations, denied an outright victory to combined military might United States and Israel. It rather succeeded in compelling the United States to pursue peace on terms that appear far more favourable to Iran.  A regime that has existed as pariah for half a century appears poised to end its global isolation with removal of all sanctions and offer of a major economic reconstruction programme. The theocratic dispensation in Tehran finds itself more entrenched after a war that threatened to topple it. 

Establishment of direct communication line between Washington and Tehran to ward off accidental triggering of conflict, which is highly plausible in the prevailing ambience of distrust, progress on formation of technical working groups on sanctions relief for Iran, agreement on nuclear issues through a closer inspection, and mechanisms to secure maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as de-escalation of tensions in Lebanon, represent significant progress in the peace process.

Nevertheless, deeper security, ideological and geopolitical faultlines that fueled the war remain largely unresolved. Hence, the key stakeholders may have to stretch their capacity, commitment and innovation to translate the current “agreement on a 60-day roadmap toward a final settlement” into an endurable peace and stability in the region.

Why Iran Appears A Winner

The “interim agreement” appears victory for Iran largely due to the MoU provisions like respect for Iranian sovereignty, partial relief on sanctions, release of frozen assets, waivers on selected oil and petrochemical exports, easing of economic restrictions on Iran, commitment to a reconstruction programme of at least 300 billion US dollars and endorsement of final deal by a binding UNSC resolution. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed "major progress" on such issues in talks in Switzerland. Simultaneously, Iran's lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf brushed aside President Trump's threat of renewed military action, citing failure of such military actions to intimidate Iran.

    American firepower with its formidable surveillance and precision strike capacity, stealth technology, logistics network and overall force projection, backed by Israel's high tech-intelligence prowess failed to vanquish Iran. Iran held its ground, despite losing almost its entire top political-military leadership, thousands of trained IRGC personnel, almost half of its air, naval and ground military assets, besides suffering tens of thousands of civilian casualties. Massive infrastructure damage, assessed in hundreds of billions of dollars, and big hits on key economic installations and ports also failed to dent Iran's spirit. Low-cost high-impact Iranian drones, manufactured and deployed in very large numbers with flexibility, compelled US-Israeli forces to expend interceptor missiles costing 50 to 500 times more.  Iran took the attack to US bases across the region, compelling Americans to defend a larger area and face potential alienation of its allies. 

    While direct U.S. military losses are estimated only around $50 billions, with cumulative losses assessed at $100 billion, the overall threat to American credibility and goodwill in the region and beyond appeared profound. Energy production disruptions and infrastructure damage is assessed to have caused estimated GDP contraction to the tune of 3-6 percent for American allies in the gulf. They are believed to have pressured United States to opt for early exit from the war.

     On the other hand, large-scale civilian casualties, mass sufferings and infrastructure damage in US-Israel attacks rallied the Iranian civilians support their Govt ignoring their own grievances. Trump and Netanyahu, who had walked into the war with a call for regime change in Iran, have landed up strengthening the theocracy in Tehran.

Why Sustainable Peace Shall Be Difficult

    The eventual fate of peace continues to be overshadowed by poor trust, broken commitments in the past, competing threat perceptions and strategic irreconcilability of the stakeholders. The suspicion that Trump may use diplomacy as a smokescreen to topple the Iranian regime is grounded in experiences of the past. US had initiated this war in February, just a day after Omani Foreign Minister had declared that an understanding had been reached between the two sides on all key issues. It appeared that Americans were preparing for the war using diplomacy as a distraction.

    Simultaneously, President Trump’s frequent recourse to high-risk deception, bluff, bullying and unpredictability may be effective bargaining strategy in tactical corporate deals.  But these have dented his credibility as a responsible statesman.

    Similarly, Iran’s adversaries remain skeptical of Tehran's long-term intentions. They may suspect that even if Iran temporarily accepts curb on nuclear activities under pressure, it is unlikely to give up its aspiration for nuclear weapons. Many Iranian regime insiders have openly stated that a nuclear weapon alone offered a credible deterrence against future US-Israeli aggressions.

           Iran’s ambitions for regional domination, by undermining American allies, is well known. Its elaborate network of over half a dozen proxies, including Hezbollah and Houthis, possess varying degrees of capacity for irregular proxy war. They have potential to disrupt of regional maritime traffic, threatening other gulf states. Hence, US allies in the region may oppose any concession to Iran that may alter the larger strategic balance in the gulf.

    Further, a degree of indirect Chinese support to Iranian regime is assessed to have bolstered the latter’s capacities to withstand combined US-Israeli aggression. China has appeared clear about its strategic objective to expel US and NATO from whole of Asia. Its proximity with Iran, and even others in West Asia, complicates the search for an endurable peace.  

             Simultaneously, Netanyahu, appears the biggest potential spoiler of peace. His intermittent attacks even after signing of MoU only confirm such apprehension. The very character of Iranian regime poses an existential threat to Israel. But Netnayahu has personally a lot at stakes at home. To deflect potential indictment in corruption charges by just hanging in power, he may still attempt a more audacious covert strike on Iran if there is slightest of opportunity. 

    Finally, any major American concession to Tehran can invite accusations of weakness for President Trump. Given his intrinsic outlook to always appear strong, he can be trusted with reneging from commitments. Similarly, Iranian side shall also be under pressure to appear strong within its own constituency at home. These can bring additional stress on the fate of final settlement.  

India and the Emerging Strategic Landscape

    India appears to have lost its strategic advantage of wider acceptability across internal divides in the region. It has also not been able to pursue its avowed policy of strategic autonomy vis-a-vis Iran, despite investing in Chabahar port and enjoying deeper convergence of interests with Iran. As one of the world's largest energy importers, India remains vulnerable to disruptions and instability in the Gulf, which impact energy prices, economic growth and inflation at home.

    As a large nation with serious constraints, India needs stronger strategic capabilities, greater institutional agility and a deeply calibrated approach to influence and shape its external surroundings to a certain level. This is an existential necessity in an increasingly interconnected world.

Conclusion

    Transforming the fragile interim peace in West Asia to an endurable one calls for responsible statecraft by major stakeholders. Iran is deeply trapped in its ideological-theocratic moorings. It is in no position to transform abruptly even though the same appears necessary to sustain an equilibrium of even an uneasy co-existence with USA and its allies in the region. There is need for patience and trust on both sides. China’s strategic psyche drives its agenda of geopolitical domination of Asia with a degree of secrecy and subtility that may pose its own challenge. Responsible statecraft warrants key actors to temper their expectations, set their goals realistically and prioritize peace and security in the larger interests of people in the theatre of conflict as well as larger global growth and resilience of global supply chains. Individual leaders may have to contain their private ambitions for glory or appeasement of their respective domestic constituency. Diplomacy needs to be driven with a higher degree of integrity to achieve a threshold of trust that can sustain an endurable peace and security in the region.

Elusive US-Iran Peace: Trapped Between a Mirage and an Abyss

 Complexities of asymmetrical warfare, economic exhaustion, and strategic compulsion have pushed Washington and Tehran towards an uneasy, cold and turbulent peace. There is a strong possibility that it may only be a strategic pause, albeit a longer one, rather than an endurable peace, before resumption of next round of confrontations. Hence, stakeholders have to fix multiple points if the current process aspires not only security of lives and stability of the region but also protection of global energy supply chains, global growth and overall stability of markets world over.   

Elusive Peace

US-Iran peace process in recent weeks has appeared trapped between a mirage and an abyss. Diplomatic mediators have shuttled between capitals carrying proposals and counterproposals amidst recurrent missile and drone attacks as well as persistent combats in the sky and waters. Mutual distrust among the warring parties- US, Israel and Iran- has more often outweighed the gestures of peace, reconciliation and accommodation. Ceasefire has been under relentless fire, pushing the peace-talks like a pendulum swinging between possibility and uncertainty. If dynamics of asymmetrical war has exposed futility of escalation, the persistent distrust has ensured near impossibility of a reconciliation.

Nevertheless, economic exhaustion and larger global and strategic pressures have pushed both USA and Iran to pursue a peace that has so far been too uneasy, cold and rocky. It still appears more as a strategic pause, hopefully a longer one, before resumption of confrontation.

As on June 12, 2026, Washington and Tehran appear closer to at least an interim agreement than at any point of time since the present conflict erupted. President Trump, who had threatened hours earlier on June 11 to decimate remaining military infrastructure of Iran and even take over its entire oil reserves, including primary oil export hub -Kharg island- that handles 90% of its crude, abruptly altered his tone. He declared at White House that the United States was close to securing "a great settlement" and suggested that a memorandum of understanding could be signed "over the next few days," possibly in Europe. He apparently cancelled planned strikes hinting that negotiations had entered a decisive phase of conclusion. Markets rallied all over the world taking it as a cue for positive sentiment.

On the other hand, Iranians initially neither acknowledged nor rejected the possibility of an agreement. They emphasized that the final decision was yet to be made. They also insisted that “substantial differences remained unresolved” and that any arrangement “must reflect Iranian sovereignty and national dignity” rather than surrender to military coercion. Subsequently, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that a Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer, pending its finalization. Nevertheless, somewhat conflicting statements have continued from both sides even after this.  

Poverty of Trust

A certain threshold level of mutual trust has always defined success of any diplomatic process. This has been squarely missing between US and Iran. Slightest miscommunication may still trigger derailment of the peace process.  In the prevailing equations, sustainability of even a formal deal, and its ability to lead to an endurable solution, remains doubtful.

President Trump’s frequent recourse to high-risk deception, bluff, bullying and overall unpredictability and unreliability may be very effective in corporate deal making in New York or Las Vegas. But in global diplomacy, such an approach needs to be tampered to a different level lest it permanently erodes the trustworthiness and credibility of the most powerful state on the planet. 

It is not only about the way he has dealt with Iran alone. Astounding success of American covert operation to capture Nicolas Maduro or killing of Iranian supreme leader or elimination of Iranian military top brass have permanently altered the trust quotient in geopolitics. Iranians have been repeatedly quoted by media that the US was not negotiating in good faith. They complain that more often the United States used the negotiations only as a smoke screen to prepare for deceitful attacks.

Such allegations gain credence in light of Omani foreign Minister’s disclosure on Feb 27, just a day before US launched its attacks on Iran, that details of US-Iran agreement had been worked out.  It was clear that American CENTCOM was preparing for the attacks, irrespective of the progress or otherwise in the Omani brokered talks. 

During early days of the war, both United States and Israel had declared regime change in Iran as their war objective. They have climbed down from the initial goal more out of compulsion rather than choice. For Iranian regime, its survival remains sacred and non-negotiable. Hence, it shall remain wary of trusting entities who have been seeking to overthrow its very existence.  This is especially after large-scale killing of senior functionaries of the regime.

 This explains fragility of a ceasefire that has witnessed sustained violations. Iran and Israel have regularly targeted one another's strategic infrastructure through periodic missile exchanges. Israel intermittently intensified operations against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, maintaining that ceasefire with Tehran did not extend to other theatres.

    Iran, for its part, had continued launching missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases across the Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and even UAE, threatening serious spillover of war in the entire region. American commanders stationed in the Gulf have repeatedly acknowledged the fragile nature of ceasefire where absence of full -scale war did not mean peace.

Complex Dynamics of Asymmetrical Warfare

The later phase of the U.S.–Iran confrontation also exposed severe limitations of lethal military capacities in extracting an outright victory in complex geopolitical theatres.  Iran is in no position to defeat the United States militarily. Yet by denying an outright victory to combined forces of US and Israel, it has inflicted severe psychological and financial damage on both United States and Israel as well as the entire world, especially Asia.

American superiority in air firepower, surveillance capacity, precision strike, stealth technology, logistics, and overall force projection remains far too overwhelming for Iran. Iran is also in no position to match Israel's technological and intelligence prowess. Yet these have failed to exact a capitulation from Iran.  

Iran has suffered staggering losses. Its entire military top brass has been wiped out along with its supreme spiritual leader Ali Khamenei. Estimated civilian casualties are in excess of tens of thousands whereas thousands of losses of IRGC fighters have been reported in precision US-Israeli strikes. Iranian Air Force has been severely crippled with at least 62 confirmed losses (unconfirmed figure places it at 83) of out of a total inventory of little over 300. Many of the surviving aircraft have been damaged or grounded, beyond repair reducing Iranian strength to half of the pre-war levels. Similarly, Iranian Navy has also suffered massive damages. Out of a total of nearly 100 conventional vessels and submarines, the figure of confirmed losses as on June 10 stood at 28 (12 destroyed, 14 sunk and 2 captured) besides another 14 being rendered inoperable. It has lost of most of its Frigates and Corvettes even though of loss of submarines is estimated to be minimal.

Multiple IRGC bases in Tehran, Isfahan, Bandar Abbas, and Bushehr have been damaged. Several underground missile cities have been destroyed but still a large number of these remain intact. Several key ports like Bandar Abbas and Bushehr as well as well as multiple Refineries and petrochemical plants have been damaged. This has further crippled an already sanction hit economy, comprehensively eroding its economic and military capacities. Estimated economic losses for Iran are placed at hundreds of billions of dollars. 

Yet Iran's cheap, expendable drones, capable of being deployed in large numbers, cost only tens of thousands of dollars compared to the sophisticated American and Israeli interceptor missiles, each costing anywhere between one to five millions.

    United States has also lost 42 aircraft whose estimated cost has been assessed at 29 billion dollars. Media inputs also suggest that it is spending almost 1 billion dollars daily on the war at peak of confrontations and the Pentagon insiders have been quoted stating the total war cost figures stood at 50 billion dollars by June first week. There is limited infrastructure damage on account of missile hits at US bases in the region as most of these have been contained. Nevertheless, all US allies in the region have suffered some military hits, loss of lives and severe economic hits. The loss of global goodwill for the United States and especially President Trump may be formidable.

    Such economic asymmetry has fundamentally altered the strategic and military calculus of war. Iran has also compounded the challenges for US and its allies by attacking US bases in the region as part of a classic strategy of asymmetric warfare. The same has compelled the USA to expend its energy and resources on defending multiple fronts. 

    It is endurance of Iran’s missile and drone arsenal that denied US and Israel  a clear victory. Iran also exploited geography of Persian Gulf by disrupting Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for roughly one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flow. This has hit markets and economies in many Asian states very hard. 

 

Boomerang Impact

Ideological and institutional resilience of a deeply entrenched theocratic regime in Iran, even in face of serious human and material losses, has emboldened it to approach the negotiations from a position of strength.

American Israeli aggression has given it a fresh lease of life when its domestic popularity and acceptability had been dwindling. US-Israeli attacks have been unmindful of civilian casualties and mass sufferings. The regime has used these to invoke to rally popular support by invoking sentiments of patriotism. The declared war objective of regime changes by US and Israel has boomeranged.  

Regime change is a delicate component of a complex science of covert warfare. It requires a unique cocktail of deception, deniability and subversion by smart harnessing of efficacious support structures in a state. Reckless or excessive use of force, and that too from an external force, is certain to change popular sentiment.  Such strategy may have been successful in medieval era when institutional apparatus of a modern state was in a rudimentary stage, offering bigger space for powerful parallel power centers. Such a move may still succeed in de-institutionalized states or states with very fragile institutions.

Iranian theocratic regime, despite its financial and technological constraints, was not found wanting on ideological support among well trained and ideologically committed troops or efficacy of structural components of the state. Iranian state remains in a strong position to deny space for subversion and armed struggle as well as crush any attempt to takeover state power through street agitation. US-Israeli aggression has proved to be a Godsend opportunity for the regime to bolster its legitimacy as savior of the people and the nation. It has also used the opportunity to fracture and crush possible power centres that could challenge it. 

Larger Geopolitical Context

Further, a degree of covert and indirect Chinese and Russian support to Iranian regime must have played a critical role in sustaining the moral and capacity of the latter to deny victory to US-Israeli forces.

China has been clear about its strategic objective drive out US and NATO not only from Taiwan and Far East but from whole of Asia. Venezuela may have been far more dispensable compared to Iran, whose fall again does not pose any existential threat to China. Yet it is likely to back Iran far more than Venezuela because any investment in Iran to counter US influence is likely to get bigger geopolitical and security dividends, at a much lesser cost, due a variety of factors that are too obvious. 

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has appeared determined to keep the pot boiling in whole of West Asia and more so in Iran. This appears critical for preserving his personal political fortunes and evasion of his possible conviction. His influence on US strategy has also dented integrity of American geopolitical calculations. Several former senior Israeli statesmen have accused Netanyahu of being driven more by his own private agenda than that of collective interests of people of Israel.  Reckless killings of unarmed civilians and large-scale destruction of public infrastructure must never be objective of war by a responsible state. These erodes credibility and acceptability of every such aggressor.

Further, the quality of mediator or broker is also important in third party-facilitated talks. Being an Indian with a better understanding of psyche of Pakistani political and military establishment, one can far better appreciate the confusion between US and Iran and their relentlessly ping- pong position on critical issues. A dishonest and unreliable mediator, who has been established as the biggest sponsor of conflict both at home and abroad, more often breeds discord and spreads confusion. This is what has defined the essence of Pakistan brokered US-Iran peace process so far.

Financial Losses for the World

US-Iran conflict has hit the entire world and especially Asian states like India and Japan to some extent. Crude prices had shot up from $70-72 per barrel prior to the war to up to $120 before somewhere stabilizing around $85-90 after the ceasefire process kicked off. Similarly, shipping costs have also gone up and insurance premium have steeply risen leaving a much stronger cascading impact on prices and businesses. Markets all over the world, especially in Asian states, have witnessed serious erosion of wealth.   

Financial experts have repeatedly scaled down growth forecasts as direct consequence of war. While it is difficult to quantify exact economic losses, most assessments indicate global GDP losses in excess of one trillion dollar. Simultaneously, there may be additional inflation costs anywhere in the range of 0.5 to 0.8percent. Citing Middle East conflict and energy-market disruptions, the IMF has also scaled down its 2026 global growth outlook from pre-war levels of 3.4% to 3.1%. Director Research of IMF wrote on it blog on April 14: " A longer shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and further damage to drilling and refining facilities would disrupt the global economy more deeply and for longer. In an adverse scenario, assuming a sharper increase in energy prices this year coupled with rising inflation expectations and some tightening of financial conditions, growth falls to 2.5 percent this year and inflation rises to 5.4 percent."

He further added: " Countries will feel the impact differently. As in past commodity-price surges, importers are highly exposed. Low-income and developing economies—especially those with vulnerabilities and limited buffers—are likely to be hit hardest. Gulf energy exporters will face economic fallout from damaged infrastructure, production disruptions, export constraints, and weaker tourism and business activity. Remittances will fall in countries that supply migrant workers to the region." 

The consequences have been particularly severe for India as it is heavily dependent upon external energy sources amidst its own developmental constraints and pressures to sustain a very large population.

Why Sustainable Peace Appears Difficult

    There exist several serious obstacles to an endurable peace.

    United States, Iran and Israel have multiple irreconcilable expectations from the negotiations. The United States may like an effective curb on Iran's nuclear activities, aggressive intent and even capacity to optimize its strength under the current regime. It may demand greater transparency and scrutiny of Iran's nuclear programmes amidst renunciation of ambition for nuclear weapons. 

    On the other hand, many Iranian regime insiders have been quoted at credible platforms expressing regret over not pursuing their nuclear weapon program at an accelerated pace and that too more clandestinely. They have all the reason to believe that a nuclear weapon alone could offer a credible deterrence against external aggression. 

    Iran also remains ambitious of dominating the entire region and seeks undermine a number of American allies varying from Israel to Saudi Arabia. The latter, on the other hand, remain highly suspicious of the clandestine network of Iranian proxies in the region, whom it has propped up as "Axis of Resistance". Besides Hezbollah and Houthis there are at least six to eight Iran controlled groups with varying degrees of  potential to carry out irregular/proxy warfare and even disrupt maritime traffic in the region. Israel has pounded Hamas and Hezbollah and Houthis have also been under attack. Yet Iran is unlikely to give up on them unless there is total transformation of strategic calculus in the region.  

    Iran, as evident from actions and words of its top functionaries, expects serious and substantive relief from sanctions, respect for its sovereignty, assurances for its security and freedom to maintain strategic deterrence against any external attack, especially from Israel. 

    The overall space for convergence of mutual objectives of US and Iran appears fairly narrow. Iranian regime has all the more reasons to distrust President Trump and his intents as well as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Netanyahu and Israeli establishment too may be equally wary of possible revenge or even proxy or otherwise guerrilla attacks from Iran. 

    Their mediator Pakistan itself suffers from low credibility. It has track record of double dealing and peddling private mercenary agenda of its incumbents at the first available opportunity. This was clearly responsible for large-scale American casualties in Afghanistan and eventual collapse of US backed regime in Kabul. Pakistan Army had allied with the US and had continued to support Taliban.

    Domestic political factors both within the United States and internal power equations in Tehran or larger geopolitical equations within the region also pose formidable challenges to sustainable peace. Any major concession to Tehran, even if the same may be critical for larger peace and security in the region, can potentially invite accusations of weakness in a highly polarized domestic political space of US. Even though President Trump remains politically strong at the moment and he cares very little for sensitivities, he may be wary of making concessions beyond a certain threshold level. 

Simultaneously, IRGC and theocratic elements, who constitute the support base of Iranian regime, are hardliners by default. In the context of huge sacrifices in terms of human lives, including almost entire top leadership, loss of public infrastructure and overall hardship for their people, they appear to be looking for victory in the negotiations. They have tasted success by pressuring the entire world, and most of Asia, by ensuring closure of strait of Hormuz. A softer approach by the current leadership of regime, even in genuine quest of a sustainable peace, may appear as surrender under pressure. Hence, the task is cut out quite tough for the Iranian leaders.

Regional stakeholders, especially Israel under Netanyahu, appears the biggest potential spoiler of peace. Israel has all the reason to be suspicious of Iranian capabilities and intent, which have perennially posed an existential threat to Israel. Hence, Israel has been insisting upon effective curbs on nuclear, missile and even drone capacities of Iran. But in practical terms, Israel will continue to distrust the very existence of the current Iranian regime, given its outlook, as well as any substantial economic and technological progress under its aegis.

        Simultaneously, Arab partners of United States are also apprehensive of Iran and its entrenched ideological position as well as its overall ambitions. They may oppose any concession to Iran that may alter strategic balance in the region or kick off fresh realignments.

China and Russia factors cannot be discounted from the larger geopolitical equations in the region. Though both of them have outwardly maintained a near total distance from the conflict but their covert backing to Iranian regime has been assessed by many credible experts. China, given its avowed strategic objectives, is likely to nourish and back Iranian regime to a level where it can withstand American pressure and assaults and yet drain military, economic and political energy of the latter. Simultaneously, it has been in a far better position to endure economic losses on account of closure of Hormuz. Rather, it had already taken measures to mitigate such losses by diversifying its sources of energy supplies. Unless severely provoked, China is likely to avoid a direct confrontation with the United States and yet would do its best drive out the latter from the region or at least undermine its influence.  

Russia has its own axe to grind over NATO and American support to Ukraine. Its discreet and limited support to Iran appears obvious. This is again a factor that will embolden Iran even in future to take a more assertive position in future.

    Finally, in the prevailing atmosphere of distrust and suspicion, there is bigger space for operational errors and accidents. Potential miscalculation, rogue actors, proxy elements and unauthorized military enthusiasm possess the potential to quickly jeopardize the hard-earned ceasefire and peace process. 

Hence, what the world can legitimately expect is an uneasy, cold and turbulent peace hoping that it sustains longer and until such time when overall equations alter to turn more conducive for sustainable peace. An endurable peace at this juncture appears extremely difficult in the immediate future unless there is a serious transformation in the entire regional and global geopolitical calculus. 

India

India finds itself largely in the role of a bystander hit fairly hard by the developments in the region. World's most populous state cannot afford to be shut out of such global and regional geopolitical dynamics that impacts lives of its people or quality and pace of its progress. We have the largest diaspora in West Asia who are contributing to economic enterprise, innovation and overall development of that region. We have a big stake in peace, security and stability in that region and protection of every human life in the entire theatre. 

 First and foremost, India must go beyond polemics to diversify its energy sources at one and build genuine, credible and innovative alternatives to fossil fuel. Simultaneously, it must find stronger employment opportunities for our burgeoning population both at home and abroad. This calls for capacity to ensure security and stability of not only our own state but virtually every territory where Indians live and that too at minimal and sustainable costs. No piecemeal bureaucratic, diplomatic, political or legal adjustment can bring in such a capacity.

Hence, the developments in the region must trigger serious introspection within echelons of Indian state and India's strategic community and all key stakeholders of the nation.  

What I am advocating is not an external intrusion in a peace process where the present equations do not offer us any serious space. It is also not about ability to deliver speeches alone. It should be about ability to make a big difference. Stronger economic, technological, military and covert capacities are always integral component of diplomatic voice. Even if we tactically focus on an issue, we cannot afford to lose sight of larger requirement of building strategic capacities through institutional re-configurations. Our credibility and capacity even in the realm of geopolitics shall depend upon overall integrity of our approach and actions as state and the degree of consistency in the same. 

                    ************************************