DIMINISHING
THREAT OF TERRORISM: NO INDICATOR OF ITS ERADICATION
The threat of terrorism has eased globally. But it has not yet been eliminated and probably can never be eliminated at least in the foreseeable future. However, most states are today better prepared to handle terrorism than at any other point of time in the past. Terror sponsors on the other hand have been facing a bit of boomerang impact but in the larger global geopolitical equilibrium, they have their own utility for certain forces. Hence, they continue to receive protection and empowerment from their visible and invisible patrons and masters.
Nevertheless, humani race has paid a heavy cost both in terms of lives lost and opportunities missed for economic development, industry, enterprise and innovation. This may not be confined to regions impacted by terrorism. Security counter measures necessitated by terrorist threats have slowed our lives and diverted a huge quantum of resources on such security measures that do not contribute to material and social advancement of societies.
As per Global Terrorism Index (GTI), India used to be one of the most impacted states from terrorist violence for over a decade and half, since the turn of the century, when GTI started mapping terrorist violence. Over the last few years, it has been experiencing relative peace and security.
Scores of our nameless, faceless and unsung security personnel, across all divides, have made huge sacrifices to salvage the nation from relentless terrorist attacks that had become a norm for over two decades almost since 1993 Mumbai attacks. Role of large sections of our civilian population and resilience of our society too has to be respected in this fight. We also have the second largest Muslim population and the largest as minority. Despite sustained efforts to radicalise them by both internal and external quarters for their own varying objectives, overwhelming majority of our Muslims are not radicalised. Importantly, a small but significant section of Muslims are resisting radicalisation and they are more appreciative and respectful of traditional Indian or Hindu symbols than most Hindus themselves.
However, the threats terrorism, organised crime and
radicalism in name of Islam are not yet over. Probably a stronger strategy, wider approach to refine all principles of statecraft and focus on infusing integrity and excellence
in all our institutions could have enabled us tame and
even nearly eliminate this threat. The resultant dividends would have contributed to optimising our developmental potentials.
But ignorance about this complex subject among many of our stakeholders, perception of corruption and subversion in several of our institutions, including
criminal-justice system, politics, media, civil service and financial world
among others, has always hindered a cohesive and robust approach on part of
Indian state towards all issues of national security, especially covert wars.
MEDIA
HYPE OVER EXTRADITION OF A TERROR PROXY?
Over the last few days, unusual media hype with chest thumping and hysterical reporting of extradition of a US based Pakistani Canadian terror facilitator only exposes absence
of a robust strategic psyche among our media and intelligentsia. Sadly, all these media men, and women, have been unwittingly providing
succour and nourishment to Pakistani terror networks and their patrons by
providing unnecessary publicity to a terror proxy. Terrorist networks, and
their patrons, rely upon publicity to shore up their recruitment and propaganda.
Amidst these, silver lining has been a frank and forthright observation by a former Union Home Secretary, who has described the extradited fugitive as a minor player. Some sound former practitioners and few professional journalists, with solid understanding of the subject, have also underplayed the issue calling for stronger focus on the bigger issues of terrorism, radicalism and organised crime.
While terrorists or their collaborator must be severely punished to make a deterrent example out of them, we need requisite tact and caution, as part of smart national counter-terror strategy, to win this war at minimal costs. We must appreciate that terrorists are not normal people.
More often, foot soldiers in terrorism are used as fodder fuel by the real terror patrons with their own agenda. Any publicity for terrorists amounts to their glorification, at least among their ilk. It can drive more confused and psychologically volatile youth towards radicalism and eventually terrorism.
In name of free speech, terror apologists always use such issues to further subvert an already subverted population.
TERRORISM IS A COMPLEX WAR
A
little over a decade back, I had been requisitioned by an esteemed senior
colleague in larger fraternity of securocracy for concept papers on containing
insurgency and terrorism on the basis of open inputs and my own understanding.
I
did it. I was subsequently told that some of the contents of these papers were
utilised in the larger policy frameworks. I do not know what all was
used.
But years
later, I modified both the papers, deleting all the contents that could be
considered sensitive, despite these being my own ideas or known facts, and
placed the papers in public domain for larger intellectual or conceptual
discussion. The version of paper on insurgency is available on this very blog Jitendra Kumar Ojha on Democracy, Governance,
Geopolitics, National Security & Leadership : Understanding and Tackling
Irregular Warfare : A Concept Paper. The modified version of paper on terrorism was published by
Faultline journal and can be accessed on: Jitendra Ojha on indigenous strategy on terrorism. What I emphasized most as a newer approach, among others, was denial of large-scale publicity to terrorists or their activities.
In both the papers, as well as my informal discussions as a
practitioner, or a classroom teacher or adviser on strategy, I have always,
among others, emphasized that:
a) Terrorism, as well as insurgency and state patronized
organized crime, are not crime of passion or rage. These are acts of war- although
covert and indirect. These require elaborate planning and
extensive support structure, which is not possible for small groups of individuals in the present context (lone
wolves are a different category of threats but they too are inspired by radical
propaganda);
b)
Radicalized,
subverted or alienated population, unrestrained flow of active fighters, direct
collaborators, passive approvers and conscious/unconscious
propagandists, besides easier access to funds, weapons, logistics for
training, sanctuary and succour from powerful state or non- state trans-national
networks give a lethal potency to terrorism;
c)
Objective
of this war is to slowly bleed the targeted nation, or civilisation; Even if a
victory is secured at exorbitant material-human cost, it may have the same
consequences as defeat; Disruption in normal activities, impact of threat, drain
on resources for security purposes or interference of security counter-measures
collectively cripple optimal rise of the impacted state, making its people vulnerable
to various other direct or indirect threats, challenges and even
exploitation;
d)
Insurgency,
terrorism, organised crime and subversion share a symbiotic relationship with
each other; Corruption and bad governance amidst fragile institutions
and poor principles of statecraft, provide most conducive condition
for determined adversaries to succeed;
e)
Bad
governance and corruption enable adversaries to create an empire of organised
crime to raise funds on home soil of the impacted by subverting its
institutions (it is assessed that no insurgency or terrorism has ever been
funded by tax payers money by the sponsoring states on sustained basis);
f)
Real
masterminds of covert war and organised crime are able to run an elaborate
network of a parallel system where they generate huge quantum of underhand funds,
which can be infused into legitimate businesses; Simultaneously, their control
and patronage over a host of clandestine network enables them to interfere with
integrity of political, administrative and judicial processes of most
states;
g)
It
would not only be futile but even counter-productive to chase total victory
against terrorism, especially through direct and legal-bureaucratic
channels; Its overall costs in long run may turn unsustainable and interfere
with both civil liberties and economic enterprises to negatively impact
progress;
h)
Counter
terror or anti-terror or security professionals of state must also be equally, if
not more, committed to decimate and pulverise the entire terror networks;
They must use a variety of indirect, innocuous and undetectable yet innovative
means, to neuter possible support, recruitment or propaganda in favour of
terror networks to make their sustenance impossible;
i)
Brilliance
of a smart counter-terror or anti-terror strategy lays in its ability to
hit the adversary hard with minimal resources or through most
innocuous and invisible means;
j)
While certain
degree of clerical, legal and bureaucratic approaches are essential but
over reliance on these is a certain recipe for disaster in long-run (the
success of Indian strategy has emanated more from innovation and
selfless service from a large number of security professionals and
leaders, who have defied bureaucratic and legal constraints; But India’s
inability to eradicate the menace of Islamic radicalism emanates larger
systemic disorders and an ecosystem of corruption and subversion).
k) Alongside all other strategies for securing victory, media has to be tactfully managed as part of psychological dimension of warfare; Publicity must be denied to terrorists, in every possible form, and state must appear unfazed and unperturbed to send a signal to terror perpetrators and terror master minds that we are strong and capable of decimating them (over reaction or media hype over relatively minor issues is always a sign of nervousness/weakness);
EXTRADITED
FUGITIVE: A MINOR PROXY AND NO MASTER-MIND
Let us
be very clear that the extradited fugitive was neither the master-mind of 26/11
terror attacks in Mumbai, or for that matter any other attack anywhere, nor he
had the potential to be one.
He was one of the multiple proxies planted by Pakistani ISI all over the world.
He did a lot of spade work and yet he was not smart enough to evade detection
by agencies.
There may
be many more such proxies all over the world who continue to operate and
threaten us as well as the rest of the humanity.
It
is shocking that law enforcement agencies of the most powerful state had
remained oblivious of activities of such Pakistani proxies on their own soil. It is
also shocking that they have not been trace links of these proxies with their
master controllers, sitting in Rawalpindi and Islamabad.
It is impossible
that such a proxy could operate in United States and Canada on its own. There
would be an elaborate network of radical elements and multiple shades of
organised criminals and various other support groups and they have been using
these Western hubs only to deflect attention of counter terror professionals.
Until 9/11 terror attacks on US soil, all indicators suggest that the Western authorities have
been insufficiently receptive, if not hostile, to repeated Indian pleas on Pakistani efforts
to build a world-wide network of terrorism and organised crime. Even after 9/11
attacks and multiple attacks all over the world, sections of Western government
somehow resisted stronger action or sanctions against Pakistan citing their
role and relevance in larger war against terrorism.
The real master-minds of Mumbai terror attacks were clearly Pak Army and ISI. But they too could never have survived and succeeded for so long on their own.
A former diplomat friend pointed out a few days back that how
extradition of Iqbal Mirchi was brazenly sabotaged by a cartel of Indian
officers in 2011. This fugitive was a declared terrorist and his role was
clearly established in Mumbai terror attacks of 1993. Certain court records state
that no formal request for his extradition was ever handed over by Indian
authorities to their concerned counterparts where this fugitive had escaped. In
2011, when an Indian diplomat tried to extradite this fugitive, the IO in the
case had apparently refused to provide the formal extradition paper and all hell had
broken loose on this diplomat who had attempted this extradition.
Later, this official was expelled, defamed and his all-round
security was jeopardized through criminality and fraud. Attempts were made,
apparently by incumbents by India state, to clandestinely kill him, with all
relevant institutions acting either as active collaborators or passive
approvers in the entire conspiracy. And those in the Indian system who helped
this fugitive escape Indian laws were handsomely rewarded.
Though Mirchi is dead, but unlike others, this fugitive was still running an elaborate infrastructure of organised crime on Indian soil when his extradition was foiled. His extradition could have made serious exposure of clandestine networks that were utilised even in 26/11 attacks.
The entire episode only exposes fragility, if not hypocrisy, of our tall claims regarding our commitment
to fight the larger civilisational war waged against us in name of Islam by
perverting even some of its noblest teachings.
WHY INDIA NEEDS A COMPRHENSIVE APPROACH TO TACKLE TERRORISM AS PART OF ITS LARGER GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY OBJECTIVES
A large democratic India must be
conscious of the fact that externally sponsored terrorism, that it has been
facing for far too long, is a form of all out covert, criminal, inhuman and perverse identity driven war. It targets unarmed civilian population with stealth and deception, which is not possible without subversion of certain arms of state and sections of society. A somewhat hostile external geopolitical
equilibrium further multiplies our challenges.
Let us be very clear that the world is least bothered about our security. Our large size and latent potentials must be compelling others to use a variety of indirect, covert and clandestine techniques to check our optimal rise as a state and civilisation.
We need to build all round defensive and offensive capacities, at sustainable costs, in this direction to deny space for covert war against us on our own soil that our adversaries may utilise. Simultaneously we must shape or influence our external surroundings to decimate not only hostile actors and entities but even their support structures.
These can never be a stand-alone mission. We need a comprehensive strategy on
national security and restructuring of governance.
We cannot afford to be either lulled by decline in terror attacks or lose focus from real challenges and threats.
While we must derive pride from successes of our counter-terror leaders, strategists and professionals, we must be clear that this form of indirect and covert war-fare has been constantly evolving. Many of its symptoms, modes and instrumentalities keep changing depending upon a host of internal and external variables. We must anticipate and proactively deal with threats, challenges and opportunities in this direction. This is a science beyond capacity of legal and administrative clerks, which our systems, all over the world, mostly churn out.
Corruption and criminality within the ranks of terror sponsors,
apart from a host of global factors (viz; decline in US support to Pakistan
following 9/11, stronger terror counter-measures globally, modernisation drive in
Saudi Arabia, boomerang impact of terror patronage for some) have worked to our
advantage. But we have not been able to capitalise upon these.
India needs an effective model of Indocratic governance that can optimise our governance and national security output as per our own context and priorities. It must be driven by a robust and viable science of statecraft with inbuilt capacity to prevent, preempt and deter all shades of organised crime, subversion and irregular warfare at sustainable costs on continuous basis. It must flow from our overall framework of governance of state and society. The strategy cannot be delinked with governance reforms for optimising economic development, technological innovation, social and national cohesion as well as improving quality of our human resource.
We have to aspire and attempt to optimise health of both state and society and yet explore a mutually empowering equilibrium between the two. This has been my pet theme that I have always repeated every time when I speak of my idea of Indocracy.
A healthier society and a robust state, with an inbuilt synergy between the two, are possible. The details and instruments need to vary as per context. We need a wider global leadership and a movement driven by innovation, courage and integrity. This appears a pipe dream in the prevailing global ambience where our systems appear so vulnerable to lunatic pirates who appear to be masquerading, and even, succeeding as leaders.
But all big ideas start only as dream.
PS: This piece has been edited more than once. Last being on April 16.
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